Two more dry days, Saturday and Sunday, before active weather returns to Utah with a series of storms bringing snowfall to the mountain. Several powder days look likely in this upcoming week as we continue to chase some all-time snowpack records.
Short Term Forecast
Sunny again today (Saturday) before clouds start to increase just a bit for Sunday. It should stay mild with some spring conditions finally on the mountain. However, things are changing and Monday will bring the arrival of the first of a series of storms that will bring snow off and on all week next week.
The first storm is going to push in Monday morning and last through early Tuesday. This storm isn't huge on its own, but it's a halfway decent storm. A general 0.75-1.5" of liquid is forecasted in the models in Utah mountains. The temperatures for this storm will be cooler than last week's storms with snow levels at 6000 feet on average, perhaps falling at the end. I think storm totals are typically going to be 10-20" in Utah mountains with this first storm by Tuesday morning.
Then, we have a bit of a break Tuesday afternoon and evening before the next storm arrives by early Wednesday. This storm has more of a southerly, AR component to it. However, it's also focusing its best moisture into southern Utah, so I do have my concerns on how much moisture makes it to Northern Utah. Still, I think there's enough for widespread 0.75-1.5" of liquid once again with similar snow levels. That means an additional 10-20" of snow by Thursday morning.
Finally, we have a chance for a third, more traditional NW flow storm to move through late in the week. We have low confidence in this storm as models are still handling it differently, but it could add to our totals with even colder air late Friday into Saturday.
You can see all three storms move through in the following GFS loop:
...and here is a look at the GEFS plumes for Upper LCC this week:
I annotated the plumes so you could see the three distinct storms. Two big ones and a potential for a colder, smaller one to close the week. None of these on their own are overly impressive. But the cumulative effect could be significant with 25-50" of snow possible over the next 7 days if things come together as currently shown. The powder days will be spread out a bit too with good snow possible on each and every day -- so that may mitigate the panic. Generally coolish temps and limited time between storms should also help to keep the snow quality high. Overall, a very good week for Utah. These liquid amounts may put us close to the all-time statewide snowpack record:
It will be interesting to see where we stand a week from today.
There are indications that the active pattern could continue to close out March and perhaps even begin April. General model idea shows storms dropping into Utah and the northern Rockies out of the northwest. This is a more traditional storm track that we haven't seen as much this season as our storms have come from California and we've seen much more SW flow. Maybe this means some good, cold spring storms to add the cherry on top of this season...? Time will tell.
Evan | OpenSnow