A strong ridge of high pressure will remain over the West this week with unseasonably hot temperatures and little rainfall. The Pacific Northwest will continue to see some rain on Monday and Tuesday but then will enter a dry pattern from Wednesday on.

Wildfire and Smoke Update

Wildfires are ongoing across the Southwest and a few fires have recently started in Southern California as well. Farther north, there is also a smaller fire burning in the Bighorn Mountains of North Central Wyoming.

Light smoke/haze will continue to impact portions of the Four Corners region, with the heavier smoke and poor air quality expected near and just downwind of fires. The Telegraph and Mescal Fires in Southern Arizona are the largest ongoing fires, together having consumed about 160,000 acres.

Near Surface Forecast Smoke Map

Upper Atmosphere Forecast Smoke Map

Forecast for Monday, June 14

Abnormally hot conditions are expected across a large portion of the West on Monday with record highs likely, especially across the Central and Northern Rockies.

A trough of low pressure will continue to impact the Pacific Northwest on Monday with showers expected across the Cascades. On Monday night, a disturbance will swing inland resulting in overnight showers and thunderstorms across the Inland Northwest (Eastern WA/OR, Northern ID) including the potential for strong thunderstorms. 

Elsewhere, any thunderstorm activity will be very isolated and confined to areas near the Continental Divide.

Forecast for Tuesday, June 15

Tuesday will be another hot day across the Rockies and Intermountain West, while cooler than average temperatures prevail across the Pacific Northwest.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Pacific Northwest and Northwest Rockies with wetting rains expected.

The Southern Rockies and Southwest could see some isolated afternoon thunderstorms but any rainfall will be minimal.

Forecast for Wednesday, June 16

The ridge of high pressure will begin to flatten some on Wednesday, resulting in a moderation of temperatures across the Northern Rockies while the core of the heat will remain across the Southwest and Southern/Central Rockies.

The Pacific Northwest will begin to see a welcome reprieve from its recent rainy pattern as conditions start to dry out.

Farther south, a gradual uptick in subtropical moisture from the south is expected across the Four Corners region. However, this moisture increase will primarily be across the upper levels of the atmosphere with drier conditions at the low levels. This will result in an increase in thunderstorm activity, but with only light rainfall reaching the surface.

The risk for "dry" thunderstorms with cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds, and little rainfall will also pose a risk for new wildfires with hot/dry conditions already present.

Forecast for Thursday, June 17

High pressure will extend farther west starting on Thursday and California will get in on the excessive heat as a result. Even the Pacific Northwest will warm up noticeably with above-average temperatures expected.

Isolated "dry" thunderstorms will be the main story across the Southern Rockies and the Southwest, and could extend as far west as the Sierras. While there isn't much rain expected, cloud-to-ground lightning will pose a risk for outdoor activities, especially above treeline and in high/exposed areas. 

Forecast for Friday, June 18

Little change to the pattern is expected with hot temperatures persisting across much of the West. However, a backdoor cold front will usher in cooler temperatures and a welcome reprieve from the heat for areas east of the Continental Divide. 

Another uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday, especially across Colorado and New Mexico with more isolated activity farther west. Locally stronger storms could produce a bit more rain compared to prior days, but will still be on the drier side. 

Outlook for Sat, June 19 – Wed, June 23

High pressure will remain over the West this weekend and into early next week, but will be positioned closer to the West Coast. The greatest departure from average temperatures during this period are actually expected across the Pacific Northwest.

A more active northwest flow featuring a series of backdoor cold fronts can be expected along and east of the Continental Divide. As a result, temperatures will be cooler across the eastern ranges of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado with more frequent and widespread thunderstorms also expected.

West of the Divide, the Southwest could see some additional isolated thunderstorms on Saturday with a drying trend then expected through early next week.

Thanks so much for reading and check back for my next forecast on Wednesday, June 16th!

ALAN SMITH

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