Forecast Highlights

• Monsoon moisture and flash flood potential for the Four Corners.
• Heaviest precip will likely fall across New Mexico.
• Still relatively quiet on the smoke front.
• Warmer temps during the week of August 22.

Summer Temperature Update

It's not new to anyone that temperatures have been very warm this summer and the following graphic details just how much warm they have been across the United States.

Map courtesy of Brian Brettschneider.

Nearly every state in the Western US has ranged from +1-2°F above normal, with much of Texas coming in +4°F above normal.

A couple more interesting tidbits are that 97% of the country is above normal, just 3% of the country has been below normal, while the country as a whole comes in +1.58°F above normal from June through mid-August.

Smoke Update

There's not much new news to share on the smoke front, which is great news. All of the heaviest smoke will stay confined to central/northern Idaho and western Montana this weekend.

Light smoke will drift into other regions across the West but nothing of consequence. New fires can always spark up so I recommend checking our wildfire smoke maps every morning for the latest update.

Forecast for Friday (8/19)

This weekend will be much like Groundhog Day as afternoon thunderstorms focus on southern Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. This will be fueled by a healthy flow of monsoon moisture and a ripple of energy moving through the region.

Forecast for Saturday (8/20)

Compared to Friday, Saturday will feature the heaviest precip moving east into New Mexico and further north into Colorado. Flash flood potential will be a threat, especially for canyon country and for new burn scars.

Forecast for Sunday (8/21)

Sunday will then be the quietest day of the next three days as the bulk of the moisture moves further east. The main focus of thunderstorm activity will likely be across the higher terrain of Colorado, especially along the Continental Divide. Start early and be below treeline early if you're peak bagging.

And don't forget about our vast library of weather map overlays.

We make it easy to see if there is precipitation and wildfire smoke heading towards your location, and if there is still snow cover, lightning, or poor air quality nearby.

You can also take a peek into the future with our 2-day forecast animations for precipitation, wildfire smoke, cloud cover, wind gust, and temperature, as well as the global air quality forecast for the next 5 days.

OpenSnow → OpenSnow.com/map

OpenSummit → OpenSummit.com/map

Outlook for Monday (8/22) - Friday (8/26)

Following the very active weekend across Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico, drier air should begin to filter in as a high pressure builds over the Western US and cuts off the steam of subtropical moisture.

Daily thunderstorm activity will still continue across the higher terrain, with a focus on Colorado and New Mexico. Much of the West Coast will remain "high and dry". California remains in the donut hole.

In summary, expect a quieter week on the weather front from August 22-26, with well above average temperatures across the Pacific Northwest and down into California and slightly cooler temps across the Four Corners region.

Thanks for reading! Next update on Monday (8/22).

SAM COLLENTINE