Forecast for Wednesday (June 7):

A low pressure system will be centered near the SoCal/Nevada border with an abundance of moisture and energy streaming into much of the West. As this low moves slightly northward, the combination of moisture, instability, and wind shear will support strong to severe thunderstorms from Tahoe & NorCal into Oregon and Idaho. Large hail and/or gusty winds will be possible with any severe thunderstorms that develop.

The Rockies will be another focal point of thunderstorm activity from New Mexico to Montana. Thunderstorm coverage will be fairly widespread in these regions and stronger storms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and heavy rain. Areas that currently have saturated soils from recent rains and/or are dealing with high runoff from snowmelt will see an elevated threat of flash flooding as well.

Thunderstorm coverage will be more isolated around the Wasatch and Northern Utah. Areas where no rain is expected include Arizona, Washington, BC, and Alberta. 

Forecast for Thursday (June 8):

The low pressure system will move slightly northward on Thursday. The highest risk of strong to severe thunderstorms (frequent lightning, moderate to large hail, gusty winds) is expected across Eastern Washington, Northern Idaho, and Western Montana.

Locally heavy rain can also be expected across this region, with an even higher threat of heavy rain/flash flooding near and east of the Continental Divide in Montana.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms can also be expected across Northern California, Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming, and Northern Utah with more isolated activity for Colorado.

Forecast for Friday (June 9):

The area of low pressure from recent days will move slightly northward once again while a new low pressure system will approach the coast of California. Numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, while the action will also shift northward into Southern BC and Alberta where some much-needed rain can be expected.

Further south, the Sierra Nevada Range and Great Basin will stay active with scattered thunderstorms with more isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across Utah and Colorado. 

Forecast for Saturday (June 10) to Sunday (June 11):

Another active weekend is in store for the West as one low pressure system lingers over the Northwest, and another pushes ashore into California. The Sierra Nevada Range and much of Eastern California, the Great Basin, the Northern Rockies, the Interior of BC, and the Canadian Rockies will see the highest coverage of thunderstorms and rainfall this weekend.

Moisture is also expected to increase across Eastern Colorado with an uptick in thunderstorm chances across the Front Range, while coverage is expected to be more isolated across Western Colorado and Utah.

Outlook for Monday (June 12) to Friday (June 16):

Little change is expected to the overall pattern next week with low pressure systems continuing to work their way into the West Central U.S. Conditions are expected to remain wetter than average across a large portion of the West, with the only exceptions being the Desert Southwest and portions of the Pacific Northwest.

Temperatures will remain on the cooler side of average for June across California, the Southwest, and the Southern and Central Rockies. Above-average temperatures are expected to persist across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (June 9).

Alan Smith