The Heat Is On Across The West:

High pressure will strengthen across the West late this week and into the weekend, resulting in hotter-than-average temperatures for nearly all areas near and west of the Continental Divide, except for some areas right along the coast. Temperatures will also approach record levels across portions of Arizona, Nevada, and California this weekend. 

If you have outdoor plans late this week, target the morning hours when temperatures are coolest and bring plenty of water. Alternatively, head to the higher elevations or the coastal regions where temperatures will be cooler.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

Wildfire activity has picked up across BC over the past week and will continue to result in smoky conditions across the Interior of BC as well as the Canadian Rockies in Alberta. 

The worst of the smoke will be confined to areas north of the U.S. border, but Glacier National Park will be on the edge and could see hazy skies at times over the next 5 days. Heavier smoke is expected across Eastern Montana as well as the Northern Plains, with otherwise minimal impacts for the Western U.S.

Forecast for Wednesday:

Showers and thunderstorms will favor Southern BC and Western Alberta with mixed results – wetting rains will be good for fire danger, but not all areas will receive rain, and lightning and gusty winds are not so good for fire danger. 

South of the border, a few showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the Olympic Mountains and North Cascades, with a few isolated storms also developing across the Northern U.S. Rockies.

A weak shot of monsoonal moisture will also result in isolated terrain-driven thunderstorms across Southern Arizona, New Mexico, and Southern/Central Colorado. 

Forecast for Thursday:

A similar pattern will remain in place with scattered showers and thunderstorms favoring Canada, while storms will be more isolated in coverage across the Northern U.S. Rockies. A weak disturbance sliding down the east side of the Divide will also result in isolated thunderstorms near the Divide in Colorado.

Monsoon moisture will become shunted further south with a drying trend expected west of the Divide in Colorado, with isolated thunderstorm activity confined to Southern New Mexico and Southeast Arizona.

Forecast for Friday:

Showers and thunderstorms will favor the Canadian Rockies in Western Alberta with a drying trend heading further west into BC where only isolated storms are expected. Isolated thunderstorms can also be expected near/east of the Divide across the Rockies, but coverage will be spotty with minimal rainfall.

Monsoon moisture will continue to retreat south of the Mexico border with only a few stray thunderstorms expected across Southern New Mexico and Southeast Arizona.

Forecast for Saturday to Sunday:

Moisture will remain limited across the Western U.S. this weekend with only some isolated thunderstorms near/east of the Continental Divide and across Southern New Mexico/Southeast Arizona. Better chances of showers and storms will remain north of the Canadian border.

A significant heatwave will also take hold across the Southwest and California during this period. A few isolated dry thunderstorms could also develop across the Sierra Nevada Range on Sunday. 

Outlook for Monday (July 17) to Friday (July 21):

Dry conditions will prevail across much of the West Central U.S. next week. However, monsoon moisture will begin to move into the Southwest with a better chance of thunderstorms expected across Southern Arizona, and eventually Northern Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. 

A trough of low pressure is also expected to move into the Northwest early in the week, resulting in a chance of showers across Western Washington and a better chance of wetting rains north of the border in BC (good news for fires).

Temperatures will remain hotter than average across most of the West during this period, though the core of anomalous warmth will shift eastward over time from California/Nevada into New Mexico and Colorado. Temperatures will also cool off a bit across the Pacific Northwest in response to the aforementioned trough. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Friday (July 14).

Alan Smith