Record Heat Possible This Weekend:

A strong ridge of high pressure will result in a major heat wave across the Southwest and West Central U.S. with highs ranging from the 90s to 110s depending on location and elevation. The highest temps relative to average (and best chances of record temps) will exist across Arizona, Utah, Nevada, California, and parts of Idaho with Saturday and Sunday expected to be the two hottest days.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

Fire activity has been significant across British Columbia this week, with many new lightning-triggered fires over the past week. Smoke has also been on the increase throughout Western Canada with deteriorating air quality. 

The heaviest smoke from late this week through early next week will impact Central and Eastern BC as well as the Canadian Rockies in Alberta. Smoke will also impact areas east and southeast of the Rockies across the Northern High Plains, while the easternmost ranges of the Northern U.S. Rockies will experience some smoke as well.

Forecast for Friday:

Isolated thunderstorms can be expected near and east of the Continental Divide throughout the Rockies from Alberta to New Mexico, with dry conditions west of the Divide. Isolated storms can also be expected across Southern Arizona and New Mexico with a little bit of monsoonal moisture in place.

Forecast for Saturday:

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms can be expected near and east of the Divide in Colorado and New Mexico as well as Alberta, with a drying trend across Wyoming and Montana. Dry conditions will also prevail west of the Divide.

Forecast for Sunday:

Nearly the entire Western U.S. will be dry on Sunday, with the only possible exceptions including Southern New Mexico as well as the Sierra Nevada Range in California where a few isolated thunderstorms are possible.

Also, a trough of low pressure approaching the PNW Coast will result in some light showers developing across the Olympics, Cascades, and BC Coast Range on Sunday night.

Forecast for Monday to Tuesday:

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler but remain very hot across much of the West during this period. However, the pattern will gradually turn more active in some areas as far as shower/thunderstorm activity goes.

The North American Monsoon will begin to ramp up with increasing moisture and isolated/scattered thunderstorms developing across the Four Corners states as well as the Sierra Nevada Range. Further north, a trough moving across Canada will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms to BC and Alberta, while the Washington Cascades will see some showers as well.

Outlook for Wednesday (July 19) to Sunday (July 23):

Monsoonal moisture is expected to become established across the Southwest U.S. during this period, resulting in near daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorms favoring the higher terrain of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, and Southern Utah. Dry conditions will prevail further north across the PNW and Northern Rockies.

Confidence is high that temperatures will remain hotter than average throughout the West during the second half of next week.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (July 17).

Alan Smith