Helpful Links:

Favorites – Weather Forecasts

Current US Radar Map

Forecast US Radar Map

Lightning Risk Map

Hail Size Map

Snow Depth Map

Current Air Quality Map

Smoke (High-Res) Surface Map

Friday Afternoon Update:

It has been an active day across the Northern and Eastern Rockies and adjacent plains with some rather intense thunderstorms which are producing frequent lightning, and in some areas, large hail and strong winds.

Here is our lightning risk map as of 5:18 PM Mountain Time on Friday:

A similar pattern is expected through the weekend, though Colorado and New Mexico will see a decrease in thunderstorm coverage.

5-Day Temperature Outlook (June 14-18):

Temperatures will remain above normal across most of the West through the weekend and early next week. The exception is the Pacific Northwest, west of the Cascade Crest, where temperatures will be below normal.

Saturday (June 14):

The jet stream will remain over the Northern Rockies on Saturday with southeast surface winds reinforcing the flow of abundant moisture into Montana and Northeast Wyoming.

The easterly wind component will have an upslope effect along the eastern side of the Continental Divide, which will favor thunderstorms, which will intensify as they track eastward through the afternoon and evening.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across this region with the potential for large hail and damaging winds, and a tornado can't entirely be ruled out across this region either. Heavy downpours can also be expected with stronger storms, though fast storm motions will limit the flash flooding risk. 

Elsewhere, a substantial drying trend is expected over Colorado and New Mexico, while the North Cascades and Northeast Washington could potentially see some isolated thunderstorms with light rainfall expected. 

Sunday (June 15):

A more pronounced shortwave trough will track across the Northern Rockies from the southwest, and once again, areas east of the Divide in Montana and Wyoming will be favored for thunderstorms with rich low-level moisture in place.

Strong wind shear associated with the shortwave trough, combined with high levels of moisture and instability, will support a strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with large hail and damaging winds possible, along with an outside chance of a tornado.

West of the Divide, there will be enough moisture in place for the shortwave trough to trigger scattered thunderstorms across Northeast Oregon, Central Idaho, and Western Montana and Wyoming with storms producing light to moderate rainfall.

A slight uptick in instability will also result in a very isolated thunderstorm threat over the easternmost ranges of Colorado and New Mexico, including the Front Range and Sangres. Any storms in these areas will produce light/spotty rain and gusty winds. 

Monday (June 16):

A backdoor cold front will slide down the eastern side of the Divide and adjacent plains over the Northern Rockies, with Gulf moisture wrapping around the backside of the low from the northeast to support another active day with numerous thunderstorms.

Another trough will approach from the southwest with increasing wind shear, which will support another threat of strong to severe thunderstorms across Montana and Eastern Wyoming with the potential for large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain.

The approaching trough will also help to trigger scattered thunderstorms across the Interior Northwest, where modest levels of moisture and instability will be present, with storms generally producing light to moderate rainfall.

Also, there is a chance that Northeast Colorado, including the Front Range and Denver metro area, could see some late-day or evening thunderstorms depending on the timing of the cold front. However, this is a conditional threat as some models are projecting the cold front to arrive later on Monday night. 

Tuesday (June 17):

The cold front will push its way southward through Eastern Colorado with widespread showers and thunderstorms, and cooler temperatures expected behind the front along and east of the Divide in Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado.

Rain will be possible during the morning hours across these areas, with higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is potential for strong to severe thunderstorms near the Front Range and across Eastern Colorado during the afternoon as well. 

Wednesday (June 18):

The Eastern Rockies and adjacent plains will see a drying trend as drier air pushes in from the west. 

However, a wetter pattern is expected over the Pacific Northwest as a deeper trough takes hold over the region and a cold front moves through from the west.

Moisture will arrive with this system with showers developing along the West Coast and over the Cascades. The Northern Cascades and Olympics look most favored for appreciable rainfall at the moment, with the Mt. Hood area and NW Oregon on the southern fringe based on current projections.

Ahead of the cold front, scattered thunderstorms are also possible across the Interior Northwest, including the Wallowas, Idaho Panhandle, and Glacier National Park. 

5-Day Precipitation Forecast (June 14-18):

Here is a 5-day precipitation projection across the West from the European Model for Saturday through Wednesday:

Outlook for June 19-23:

A trough is projected to deepen over the Northwest later next week, with ridging shifting eastward into the Central and Eastern U.S.

As a result, below-normal temperatures will likely expand throughout the Northwest and into the Northern Rockies, while the Southwest and Southern Rockies will hang onto above-normal warmth.

The Pacific Northwest, Idaho, and Montana will see the highest rainfall potential in this pattern, while the Central Rockies are looking very dry.

Outlook for Late June to Early July:

Longer-range models are projecting a return to above-normal warmth throughout the West with a ridge of high pressure expected to rebuild. 

However, there are also some signs that monsoon moisture could begin to push into the Southwest U.S. around this time.

Thanks so much for reading and have a great weekend! Next update on Monday afternoon (June 16).

Alan Smith