This July saw above-normal temperatures throughout the month. There were several days of severe weather, which brought flash flooding, wind, hail, and tornado damage to many areas in the Eastern US. Precipitation was more frequent in July with many areas seeing above-normal precipitation, with a few areas seeing normal to below-normal precipitation as well.

August will see high chances, 40-80%, of above-normal temperatures and 30-50% of above-normal precipitation with the highest chances in the Southeastern US. Read on to learn more about the weather in July and the forecast for August.

July 2024 Review:

July was a very active month of weather across the East. Above-normal temperatures and record summer heat continued throughout July. There were several heat waves with temperatures in the 90s and low 100s. Additionally, high dew points made July a very humid month throughout the Eastern US. The highest above-normal temperatures were in New England with 4-6+ degrees above-normal in July.

July was another active severe weather month across the Eastern US. Severe storms affected every state with wind damage as the most common report. There were several days of severe weather in New York with several tornadoes reported on July 10, 15, and 16. 

The storms and tornadoes on July 10 were associated with the remnants of Hurricane Beryl that moved through the Midwest and into New England. The remnants also brought flash flooding to New York and other New England states. The most serious flash flooding occurred in northeastern Vermont on July 30 with thunderstorms bringing 3-7+ inches of rain in a few hours!

Below is a look at the preliminary severe weather reports from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in July 2024.

Most areas in the Eastern US saw normal to above-normal precipitation in July. Northern New England saw above-normal precipitation due to several days of thunderstorms, some of which were associated with the remnants of Beryl. The Mid-Atlantic saw normal to slightly below-normal precipitation while the Southeastern US saw the most rain in July with consistent rounds of thunderstorms.

August 2024 Outlook:

The outlook for August shows high chances of above-normal temperatures continuing throughout the Eastern US and also the US as a whole. There is a 40-80% chance of above-normal temperatures through the East with higher chances in the Southeast and lower chances closer to the Great Lakes.

I do not see many opportunities for below-normal temperatures this August, so expect the summer heat to continue with high dew points, making temperatures feel hotter. 

The precipitation forecast for August shows above-normal precipitation chances in most of the Eastern US. The chances of above-normal precipitation are small though with a 30-50% chance with the highest chance of above-normal precipitation in the Southeastern US. These higher chances of precipitation, especially in the Southeast US will be associated with tropical systems, bringing heavy precipitation to coastal areas.

 

Tropical Outlook:

As of August 5, there have been four named tropical cyclones. Beryl in July brought the most widespread and severe effects to Texas, the Midwest, and through the Eastern US. As of August 5, hurricane Debby has made landfall along the northwest coast of Florida.

Debby is expected to slowly travel along the Southeast coast and bring very heavy rain (5-15+ inches) to states along the coast from August 5-8. After that, there is uncertainty depending on if the remnants of Debby move off the coast or further north into New England.

There are well above normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, which will cause favorable conditions for tropical cyclones to grow and strengthen in August. We are entering the peak season for tropical cyclones so expect more storms to develop and impact the Eastern US.

Check out the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies as of August 3.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

The Western US and Canada have seen wildfire season become very active in July with several wildfires sending smoke into the atmosphere and affecting air quality throughout the US and Canada. There have only been a few days of wildfire smoke in the Eastern US this July, but increasing chances of smoke will occur in August.

Below is a look at the wildfire potential across the US in August 2024.

The wildfires in the Western US and Canada will continue to grow and strengthen, sending more smoke into the atmosphere and potentially the Eastern US. Very favorable wildfire weather will continue to bring hot and dry conditions, allowing wildfires to start, grow, and strengthen in August.

The wildfire season in Canada will see favorable chances of above-normal activity in August as well. Above-normal temperatures and a dry July will lead to favorable activity for wildfires. There are no signs of smoke transport as of the first week of August in the Eastern US, but the weather pattern could change in a couple of weeks to increase the chances of wildfire smoke.

Below is a look at the wildfire forecast across Canada in August 2024.

It is too early to confidently say when, where, and if wildfires develop, let alone where they transport smoke. We will want to keep an eye on the sky and the OpenSnow smoke transport map. 

Happy August and enjoy summer! I will continue the monthly reviews and forecasts at the start of each month this summer and into the fall.

Zach Butler