June 2024 was much hotter than average for most of the West, except for northern areas near the Canadian border. Rainfall was above-average in Western Washington and across the Southwest thanks to an early start to the monsoon.

July is shaping up to be a very hot month throughout the West with near to above-average rainfall across the Southwest and Four Corners region.

June 2024 Review:

Following a chilly May for much of the West, an abrupt shift to mid-summer-like heat occurred in June. Temperatures were well above average for most of the West as high pressure became the dominant pattern. The Southwest, Central Rockies, and California had the highest departure from average temperatures.

Frequent low pressure troughs across the Northwest resulted in cooler temperatures from Washington to Northern Montana. Temperatures ended up near to below average in this region.

There were some interesting contrasts in rainfall during June. The west side of the Cascades and the Olympic Peninsula in Washington saw above-average rainfall, while the east side of the Cascades into the Northern Rockies saw below-average rainfall. 

Despite the early summer heat across the Southwest, an earlier-than-usual start to the North American Monsoon in late June contributed to above-average rainfall across Arizona, New Mexico, Western Colorado, and Southeast Utah. Flash flooding occurred in canyon regions and fire burn scars across the Southwest late in the month.

Learn More → 2024 Monsoon Season Outlook

Significant wildfires also developed across the West during June, most notably in New Mexico and Southern/Central California.

The Ruidoso area in New Mexico in particular has had a rough time in recent weeks. Fires encroached upon the town, destroying numerous structures on the outskirts. However, the early arrival of monsoonal moisture has also resulted in heavy rain that has caused damaging flash flooding and runoff since the recently burned soil cannot absorb much rainfall. 

July 2024 Outlook:

July is shaping up to be a very hot month throughout the West. NOAA's monthly outlook has high confidence in above-average temperatures. 

During the first week of the month, California and the West Coast will see the most intense heat. During the second week of the month, well-above average temperatures will extend eastward into the Interior West.

As far as moisture goes, NOAA is forecasting the Four Corners region (the typical monsoon region) to see near-average rainfall, with above-average rainfall for southern portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Below-average rainfall is expected across the Northwest.

During the first week of July, the Southwest will see a drying trend compared to recent weeks due to the location of high pressure over the Great Basin/West Coast, which will act to suppress monsoonal moisture south of the Mexico border.

During the second week of July, high pressure will gradually migrate eastward, and monsoonal moisture should gradually start to work its way back in from the south. The Central Rockies and other fringe monsoonal areas (Sierra, Great Basin, etc.) should see increasing chances of rain by mid-month.

Given the early start to monsoon season and above-average moisture levels in the monsoon source regions, some parts of the West may see higher rainfall than what NOAA is projecting. But keep in mind that rainfall can be very hit-or-miss at this time of year due to the nature of pop-up thunderstorms.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

Unfortunately, the outlook for above-average temperatures in July (on the heels of a hot June) does not bode well for wildfires. Hot temperatures relative to average lead to higher evaporation rates, which in turn dry out vegetation fuels more quickly in the absence of moisture.

The National Interagency Fire Center is forecasting above-normal significant wildland fire potential across valley and basin areas throughout the Intermountain West as well as the Central Valley of California, and near-normal potential elsewhere.

Areas that experience consistent above-average heat with little rainfall will be most vulnerable to fires this month. While valley and basin areas are noted for the highest potential, higher-elevation and more densely forested areas will see increasing fire potential this month as well.

Strong winds and dry thunderstorms (storms with minimal rainfall) are X-factors that can significantly increase fire potential and behavior in the short-term and will be something to keep an eye on as the month progresses.

Fire season is off to a slower start in Canada this summer compared to last summer, but as peak summer heat takes hold, fire potential is forecast to be above average across much of Western Canada, especially in the Canadian Rockies near the BC/Alberta border. 

Thanks so much for reading! I will post the next monthly update in early August. 

Alan Smith