By Sam Collentine, Meteorologist Updated 1 month ago October 20, 2023

NOAA 2023-2024 Winter Forecast

noaa winter forecast 2023 2024

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) makes long-range forecasts each month.

We are going to show you the NOAA forecast for the upcoming 2023-2024 winter season, but first, a warning...

Long-range forecasts are rarely accurate. These forecasts cover three months but we know that skiing quality improves and degrades with storm cycles that last a few days to a week.

Paying attention to the 1-10 day forecast with OpenSnow All-Access is the way that you'll find the best snow and give you the most accurate information for your weekend trip or destination ski vacation.

NOAA 2023-2024 Winter Temperature Forecast

noaa winter temperature forecast 2023 2024

Warm for the majority of the northern half of the country, including the Pacific Northwest, California, and Utah, with "near normal" temperatures for Colorado.

This outlook is based on a general trend of increasing temperatures during the past years and decades.

NOAA 2023-2024 Winter Precipitation Forecast

noaa winter snow forecast 2023 2024

Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, and the Upper Midwest are in the "Probability of Below" zone, which means that the odds of below-average precipitation are higher.

The big update since the winter outlook was first issued in August is that the odds of above-average precipitation are now much higher for the middle of the country. This includes the popular ski resort destinations in California, Utah, Colorado, and northern New Mexico.

NOAA 2023-2024 El Nino Forecast

noaa winter el nino forecast 2023 2024

A strong El Niño or La Niña (which refers to ocean water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean) can help us predict snowfall patterns during the winter.

For the upcoming 2023-2024 winter season, an El Niño looks to be in store, and better yet, current sea surface temperatures are still showing a strengthening El Niño event.

For the graphic above, there's a 90+% chance that water temperatures will stay above average (red bar = El Niño) and less than a 5% chance that water temperatures will be near average (grey bar = Neutral).

These model forecasts provide us with a strong signal for El Niño through the 2023-2024 winter season.

The official Climate Prediction Center outlook is also similar to these model forecasts. The CPC is giving a greater than 95% chance of El Niño continuing during the December 2023 to February 2024 timeframe.

Technology will continue to advance and someday we might be able to accurately and consistently forecast weather patterns 3-6 months in advance. Until then, upgrade to OpenSnow All-Access for 10-day snow forecasts to help you find the deepest snow and the best ski conditions.

opensnow weather forecast and snow report

Every OpenSnow All-Access subscription is also good for 365 days.

Winter & Spring Features

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That means you can use OpenSnow to escape to the desert this fall, find every powder day this winter, track the freeze/thaw cycle for corn snow and peak-bagging next spring, and avoid lightning and wildfire smoke next summer.

Download the free OpenSnow app for the most accurate snow forecast and snow report information and stay tuned to our weather forecasts for the latest updates.

Sam Collentine

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About The Author

Sam Collentine


Sam Collentine is the Chief Operating Officer of OpenSnow and lives in Basalt, Colorado. Before joining OpenSnow, he studied Atmospheric Science at the University of Colorado, spent time at Channel 7 News in Denver, and at the National Weather Service in Boulder.

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