Last week and this week are pure magic.

DEEP snow.

MULTIPLE double-digit powder days each week.

MOST MOUNTAINS getting the goods (few locations have been shut out). Basically, everyone gets a pow day!

This snowpack vs. average map shows that all river basins are well above average.

And the most ridiculous thing about all of this is that there is more snow on the way...

Tuesday was drier for most mountains with just light snow showers now and again.

From Tuesday night through Wednesday evening the next round of snow will hit all mountains. On Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, the most intense snow should fall on areas favored by winds from the west-southwest (Crested Butte, Monarch, Summit County). Then on Wednesday midday through evening, a band of intense snow should hit all mountains. This timing means that the best powder will likely be found on Wednesday afternoon or, if the intense snow lasts through evening, on Thursday morning. Total snowfall will likely be in the 6-16 inch range. Let’s keep piling it on!

Starting on Thursday morning I have low confidence in the forecast through the weekend. The reason for my low confidence is that a storm will become cut off from the main west-to-east flow of weather and it’ll hang out to the south of Colorado. These storms tend to meander rather than move in a predictable path, so the 2-5 day forecast becomes quite uncertain.

I think that this cut-off storm will bring snow to all mountains on Thursday and Friday, with light accumulations for most areas and deeper accumulations (6-12+ inches) for the southern mountains. Friday could be another powder day in the south!

Over the weekend, the cut-off storm will slowly move toward southeast Colorado and into Kansas. If the storm tracks further west, all mountains could see snow. If it tracks further east, few mountains will see snow. We’ll see what happens. I keep thinking that we’ll see dry spell, and then the atmosphere figures out a way to send us more snow (like the storm this weekend). We'll take it!

Once the cut-off storm moves away on Monday evening, we should finally get a few dry days during the middle of next week, though the latest models are now hinting that some snow could return to the northern mountains.

The next significant storm should arrive sometime later next week, around the 20-21st, ish. That’s about 9 days away, so much too soon to figure out the details.

Beyond the storm on the 20-21st, most models show at least a few additional storms through the end of January. It’s unlikely that we’ll see a repeat of last week and this week, but even one or two storms per week through the rest of the month would be incredible.

Last thing – lots of dense snow means high avalanche danger. Big natural slides are running across the state. This is the real deal. Consult CAIC and keep it conservative. 

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Powderchaser Steve is writing “The Chase” which helps you to chase powder across the western US. Check it out here: http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/chase

 

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains