Below: The Divide Cam at Sunshine Village literally sits on the Continental Divide. This view looks NW into BC and is indicative of the skies that will be prevalent over the Rockies Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Wednesday: A weak disturbance riding out of northern BC on a NW flow could bring a few isolated flurries from Sunshine north to Marmot otherwise a high-pressure ridge will build in over the Alberta Rockies for generally a mix of cloud and isolated sunny spells. Slightly warmer temps with highs at 2200m of -3C to -6C. Light to moderate W/NW winds. 

Thursday: Overnight on Wednesday a NW flow aloft will transport another weak wave of moisture through the mountains mainly north of Banff where trace accumulations to 3cm are possible at Sunshine, Louise, and Marmot by 9AM. As the high-pressure ridge begins to break down expect a mostly cloudy but breezy day with isolated flurries continuing at Louise and Marmot. Alpine temps at 2200m will range from -2C to -5C. Moderate and gusty West winds, gusting to 55 kph on the ridgetops. 

Friday: A strong arctic airmass will be slowly moving into the Alberta Rockies and will interact with a moist shortwave low-pressure system that originated in the Gulf of Alaska bringing periods of snow starting overnight on Thursday and lasting well into the day on Friday. This storm will first hit Jasper’s Marmot Basin around midnight Thursday and quickly move southward arriving in the South Rockies (Castle Mountain, Powderkeg) by 6am Friday. Favorable upslope NE winds look to bring the heaviest snowfall across Kananaskis Country (Nakiska, KPOW) and the South Rockies where snow showers will continue through Friday night. Projected storm totals through Friday night of 8 to 20cm for the SkiBig3 resorts and Marmot Basin, with accumulations of 15 to 20cm at Nakiska, and 20 to 30cm at Castle Mountain. Light and variable N/NE winds with gusts to 25 kph. Alpine highs of -8C for the resorts north of Banff, and around -3C across K-Country and the South Rockies. 

Saturday: Arctic air will be moving in on Friday night on the heels of the departing storm system. High-pressure will begin building through the day on Saturday except for the South Rockies where residual morning snow showers could bring light accumulations. Generally, morning clouds will make way for afternoon sunny skies across the range. Extremely cold in comparison to the last several weeks with afternoon alpine high temps at 2200m ranging from -18C at Castle Mountain and Nakiska, to -21C at the SkiBig3 resorts north to Marmot Basin. Light NE winds will combine to make dangerous wind chills. 

Sunday: Arctic high-pressure strengthens across the Rockies delivering clear skies north to south across the range. It will be a frigid morning with alpine temps -25C to -28C until around noon. Sunny skies will help warm the alpine to around -20C by 3pm. Light NE winds. Frostbite concerns, no doubt.  

Below: The European forecast model animation for snowfall across AB (and BC) from Wednesday 1/25 through noon local time on Saturday 1/28. This storm comes from the north and it should come in fairly strong on Friday. Friday should be planned as a powder day across the Alberta Rockies.

 

The arctic ridge is expected to dominate the weather through the middle part of next week for a mainly dry forecast. Temps will be slowly moderating, but it will still be quite cold with high alpine temps -15C to -18C daily Monday 1/30 through next Wednesday 2/1. A gradual ‘warm up’ looks to start next Thursday 2/2 but surface temps look to continue well below seasonal averages into the following weekend. Continued dry under high-pressure ridging at least through Friday 2/3.  

Below: The Canadian model animation for surface temps Saturday 1/28 through Friday 2/3 shows frigid arctic air in place beginning Saturday and slowly modifying daily into next Friday.    

Thanks for tuning in. Next update, Friday afternoon 1/27. 

Powder Out, 

Bob