The weather through Saturday will be perfect with a few clouds, no precipitation, and slightly warmer temperatures each day in the mountains (the eastern plains will see a cooldown on Friday). Enjoy! Next week is when uncertainty returns to the forecast as the remnants of Hurricane Rosa might send a lot of moisture into Colorado. It’s still about a 50/50 shot if this happens. Even if it happens, temperatures will be rather warm so snow levels will be high.
Short Term Forecast
Let’s start out with a few current images across the state.
Looking at Beaver Creek, and Mount Jackson behind (blue arrow) where there is a dusting of snow.
Below is Aspen, which is 34 miles from Beaver Creek as the crow flies or about 95 miles as the car drives. Thanks to the excellent webcams on the aspensnowmass.com website, we can see that the fall color is peaking in some spots and still has room to go in other groves. I’m heading to Aspen tonight in advance of my talk on Thursday evening (details in the “Announcements” section below).
Wednesday afternoon’s visible satellite image confirms from space what we see on the ground – clear skies for most of the state. There are just a few clouds over the far southern San Juan and Sangre de Cristo mountains, and there a few wispy cirrus clouds over the northwest corner.
Across the country, the action for the next few days will stay where it is currently, to our north and east.
Once again, the forecast for the next few days is for spectacular conditions on Thursday and Friday with mostly clear skies and warming temperatures. On Saturday, expect the warmest temperatures with a few more high, wispy cirrus clouds.
The fun part of the forecast is next week.
The big question is whether moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Rosa pushes north and east toward Colorado.
The American GFS model thinks that this will happen, and it has thought this for many days. The green line shows the predicted path of precipitation from Hurricane Rosa toward Colorado.
The American GFS model also thinks that since the moisture will have a tropical connection, the air associated with the moisture will be too warm to produce widespread snow (maybe just some snow on the higher peaks).
Now let’s look at 51 versions of the European model.
Two days ago, on Monday, September 24, about 50% of the 51 versions thought that we’d get some moisture during the middle of next week. Each horizontal line represents one of the 51 model versions.
Updating this graphic to today, Wednesday, September 26, still about 50% of the model versions think we are going to get significant moisture, and maybe another 25% say we’re going to see at least a bit of moisture.
No matter what happens with the moisture, though, most of the European model versions show warm air, like the American GFS model, so a lot of snow to mid and lower elevations is unlikely.
The bottom line is that it’s possible that we could have some fun weather later next week, with a chance for moderate to heavy rain and some high-elevation snow. Also, the trend in the models is to increase this chance a bit from my previous forecast.
Thanks for reading … next update on Friday, September 28!
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* September 27 in Aspen. 630-830pm. Details & RSVP
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* October 25 in Golden
* November 7 in Boulder
* Early November in Summit County
* November 28 in Vail
* December 5 in Denver
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