Showers will continue on Wednesday (less), Thursday (more), and Friday (midday), with the coolest air and best chance for mountain snow on Friday. Then the coldest storm of this young season should bring moderate mountain snow to much of Colorado from Sunday afternoon through Monday night with 6+ inches possible near and above 10,000 feet.
Short Term Forecast
Tuesday was a showery day across Colorado and the precipitation was mostly rain as temperatures only touched the freezing mark close to or just above 14,000 feet.
Wednesday morning’s radar still shows some showers around western Colorado, but the action on Wednesday will be much less than Tuesday, so don’t expect a washout type of day.
Wednesday’s temperatures will continue to be warm and the freezing level should hover in the 13,000-14,000 foot range, which is above most ski areas.
Then additional systems will keep showers in the forecast for the rest of the week.
On Thursday, a piece of energy will cross Colorado during the morning and midday with showers. Temperatures will be cooler and we could see snowflakes down to 11,000-12,000 feet, which is the upper elevation of many ski areas.
On Friday, another piece of energy will cross Colorado between mid-morning and mid-afternoon. Temperatures will be even cooler on Friday then they were on Thursday, so there could be snow accumulations down to 9,000-10,000 feet, which would coat some trails.
The total snow forecast from Wednesday through Friday evening shows a couple inches of snow, with the best chance over the central and northern mountains.
Saturday will likely be a tweener day as we’ll be in between storms. Expect some clouds, maybe a shower, and continued cool weather.
Looking ahead to Sunday through next week, the outlook for snow and cold is becoming better defined.
The average of 51 versions of the European model now point to late Sunday through late Monday as the best chance for accumulating snowfall over the mountains.
Each bar in the graphic below shows 24-hour total precipitation (top) and snow (bottom) for Monarch Pass, roughly in the middle of the state. The best chance for precipitation and snow (highest bars) is from late October 7 (Sunday) through late October 8 (Monday), which I highlighted with red lines.
Between Sunday evening and Monday evening, many mountains could get 6+ inches of snow near and above 10,000 feet, and we might even see flakes and some accumulations down to 8,000 feet, which would bring snow to some of the mountain towns.
Since the storm will bring winds from the southwest, south, and southeast, the chances for the most snow are greatest in the southern, central, and eastern mountains.
Following the system on Sunday evening through Monday evening, temperatures will stay cool through the rest of the week and we should see drier (though maybe not completely dry) weather.
The longer-range models then show another storm possibly around the end of next week, Friday-Saturday, October 12-13.
Beyond October 13th, the signal is for temperatures to warm during the second half of October, but not every model scenario agrees with that, so let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Thanks for reading … next update on Thursday, October 4.
* October 18 in Colorado Springs
* October 25 in Golden
* November 7 in Boulder
* Early November in Summit County
* November 28 in Vail
* December 5 in Denver
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