Stoke

This photo is from the Thompson Divide, west of Carbondale, last Thursday, February 7th. Deep, blower powder, just the way we like it!

Monday Snow Recap

The fast-moving cold front hit all mountains on Monday morning, and snow amounts were quite varied. We thought that the western mountains would do the best, and that’s kinda what happened with the highest snow totals:

Powderhorn: 6”
Steamboat: 6”
Hesperus: 4”
Snowmass: 4”
Others: Dusting to 2”

All of the snow was over by late morning or midday and we saw sunny skies for the rest of Monday.

Midweek Break

Tuesday will be sunny with a cold morning and then high temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s.  Wednesday will be mostly cloudy and warmer with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Changes to the late-week forecast

I’ll give you the most important information right up front, then keep reading for the details.

*** We thought that the deepest powder would be on Thursday, and now it looks like this will be pushed back, with the deepest powder on Friday and maybe also on Saturday ***

I am sorry for such a major change to the forecast within only two days of the storm. I plan my skiing around these forecasts as well, so it’s a pain when things change, but that’s what we have to deal with.

A few days ago, all models were generally in agreement with the Thursday powder scenario, but then on Monday afternoon, all forecasts flipped to highlighting the deepest snow on Friday and Saturday, and now there is actually pretty decent agreement among all models on this scenario, so I am hoping this is the last major change to the forecast before the storm (though if there was already one major shift in the forecast, perhaps there will be more).

Here’s a quick breakdown of the upcoming days:

Wednesday late afternoon through Wednesday night
* Quick hit of snow for the southern mountains, 1-6 inches

Thursday morning through midday
* The central and northern mountains get snow, 1-6 inches, freezing level of 7,000-8,000 feet

Thursday night through Friday morning
* Main wave of most intense snow, 5-20 inches, freezing level of 8,000-9,000 feet, cooling by afternoon

Saturday morning
* Cold front, a burst of intense snow, perhaps snow continuing all day in northwest flow

Monday
* Another system for the southern mountains

We are just getting into view of the forecasts from the higher resolution CAIC-WRF 2km model and here is what I’m seeing as an early look at the snow forecasts.

Steamboat
Thursday: 6-12
Friday: 6-12
Saturday: more!

Northern Mountains / Aspen / Sunlight
Thursday: 2-4
Friday: 4-8++ (higher elevations of Summit County could do better than this)
Saturday: more!

Powderhorn:
Thursday: 5-10
Friday: 5-10
Saturday: some more

Crested Butte / Monarch
Thursday: 4-8
Friday: 6-12
Saturday: some more

Telluride / Silverton
Thursday: 1-3
Friday: 6-12
Saturday: more!

Purgatory / Wolf Creek
Thursday: 3-6
Friday: 10-20
Saturday: some more

The big caveat to Thursday and Friday’s powder is that it will come with a lot of wind, warm temperatures, and high snow levels. Below is the snow level forecast for Friday morning, going up to 8,000-9,000 feet. This elevation is near the base elevation of many ski areas, and while I think most mountains will see all snow and not really any rain except at the base, the snow should be the heavier, thicker, surfier variety.

The plus side of the Thursday and Friday event will be the abundant moisture, which can lead to very high snow totals.

And even more to consider, which I mentioned yesterday, is that a lot of thick, heavy snow, plus wind, could markedly increase avalanche risk which is notable for backcountry skiers and this might also close some roads. For expert avalanche forecast information, please read the forecasts from the Colorado Avalanche Information Center’s (https://avalanche.state.co.us/) and the Crested Butte Avalanche Center (http://cbavalanchecenter.org/).

To wrap up:

* We will see some powder on Thursday

* The main event should be Friday with lots of snow for all mountains and warm temperatures

* Then a cold front will hit on Saturday morning with snow through at least midday and cooling temperatures. The best conditions could be Saturday due to a soft, deep base from the snow over the previous two days and then lighter, fluffier snow on top.

* We might see drier weather on Sunday with snow returning late Sunday night into Monday, favoring the southern mountains.

We should stay cool next week with more chances for snow, especially later next week in the southern mountains. Once we get through the current storm cycle, we'll spend more time looking ahead to later in the month.

Thanks for reading!

My next update will be on Wednesday morning.

JOEL GRATZ

Quick Note

While some of you find my forecasts humorously funny or disappointingly funny, sadly I was not invited to perform at the Laugh Festival in Aspen this year. But a pairing of skiing and laughter is hard to beat, so this might be of interest to you: https://www.wheeleroperahouse.com/laugh-fest/

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains