Colorado Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Colorado Daily Snow

By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 2 years ago October 26, 2021

Tuesday Storm Day

Summary

On Tuesday morning, snow will start, and on Tuesday, we'll see times of intense snow during the day. On Tuesday night, snow will continue for areas favored by northwest flow. By Wednesday morning or midday, most mountains should see 4-8 inches with 8-12+ inches for some spots. Then, the next storm is possible early next week.

Short Term Forecast

It's now around sunrise on Tuesday morning and snow is just beginning to fall for the mountains farthest to the west, such as near Telluride, Silverton, the Grand Mesa, and the Flattops. Across the mountains, temperatures are warm with a rain/snow line near 11,000 feet and higher-elevations winds are gusting 40-80mph. 

During the day on Tuesday, the storm will move across all mountains. It will bring rapidly cooling temperatures and times of intense snow. On Tuesday night, we'll see continued snow showers for areas favored by northwest flow, such as near and north of I-70, the western central mountains near and west of Aspen, and the northwestern San Juan mountains, such as around Telluride and Silverton.

Here is the HRRR model's forecast radar from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning.

Snow accumulations near and above 9,000 feet (most mountain areas) should be 4-8 inches on average with up to 8-12+ inches for some spots (more on this below). Temperatures will be cold enough for snowflakes to fall down to valley bottoms near 6,000 feet by Tuesday late afternoon and Tuesday night.

There are two parts to this storm and each presents an opportunity for 'extra' snow.

The first part of the storm is during the day on Tuesday when the most intense snow should fall. Small cells of very intense snow can deliver a few inches in an hour to one mountain while a nearby mountain receives much less. It's hard to impossible to pinpoint the 'hits' and the 'misses'.

The second part of the storm is during Tuesday evening and night when northwest flow will crank up the snow showers for some mountains. Mountains favored by northwest flow include Winter Park and Berthoud Pass, Loveland, Breckenridge, Copper, Vail, sometimes Aspen Highlands and Aspen Mountain and Monarch, and often Silverton with a wildcard of Telluride. Also, some models show the winds around Steamboat to be more west than northwest, and west is more favorable for Steamboat. These areas are spots that could see higher-end totals on Tuesday evening if northwest flow works out.

Our multi-model forecast for storm total snow is below. Most spots are in the 4-8 inch range with high-end outliers being near Steamboat and near Silverton.

Two high-resolution models generally agree with the numbers above.

The HRRR (3km resolution).

The CAIC WRF (2km resolution).

Again, I'm looking for an average of 4-8 inches with up to 8-12+ inches for some spots that get lucky on Tuesday and/or are favored by northwest flow on Tuesday night.

While the snowpack is still meager across most mountains, this storm will likely provide enough snow to ride on grassy slopes in some areas, especially because the first part of the storm on Tuesday will produce thicker snow (on Tuesday night, the snow will be fluffier). 

And at the two ski areas spinning a lift (A-Basin and Keystone), there will be some powder-ish turns on Tuesday midday/afternoon and likely softer groomed snow on Wednesday morning.

The other side to this storm will be the cold air that will be here from Tuesday afternoon through Friday morning. This should help crews efficiently make snow for a couple of days.

Extended Forecast

Wednesday and Thursday will be the tail end of the storm with lingering clouds and snow showers over the northern mountains near and north of I-70. There could be some additional snow accumulations during this time.

Friday and Saturday will be warmer and drier across all of Colorado.

Then from late Sunday afternoon through Monday, a storm will clip northern and northeastern Colorado with a shot of cold air and maybe some snow. If the storm tracks a few miles north or south, that will be the difference between really cold air and decent snow totals and just a chill in the air and maybe no snow. Right now, the range of possibilities across 52 versions of the European model net out to about a 50% of measurable snow over the far northern mountains.

For the rest of next week, I still have no idea what will happen. While more models are jumping on the bandwagon for a storm to form over the southwest, it's too soon to know if this southwestern system, and/or a piece of Monday's northern system, could combine to bring significant snow totals or if it'll just miss us to the north and south. We'll see.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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