We're in the storm. Finally! And so far, so good when comparing the forecast to what's actually happened.

Snow Totals Thursday AM – Friday AM

The quality of the snow listed below is thick and dense. I'm estimating snow-to-liquid ratios of 10-to-1 or even lower to 7-to-1. This is thick, dense, heavy snow. Great for building a base and for our water supply, but definitely not blower powder. For reference, an average-ish snow-to-liquid ratio is around 14-to-1 or so, meaning 14 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid (what you'd get if you melted the snow).

Northern Mountains

8" Breckenridge (Snow Stake)
8" Cameron Pass (SNOTEL Joe Wright)
8" Copper (Snow Stake)
8" Rocky Mountain National Park (SNOTEL Bear Lake)
7" Arapahoe Basin (Sensor)
7" Berthoud Pass (SNOTEL Berthoud Summit)
7" Flattops (SNOTEL Ripple Creek)
7" Loveland (Snow Stake)
7" Winter Park (Snow Stake)
6" Beaver Creek (Snow Stake)
6" Ski Cooper (Snow Stake)
6" Steamboat Summit (Snow Stake)
6" Vail Mid-Mountain (Snow Stake)
5" Eldora (Snow Stake)
5" Keystone (Snow Stake)
5" Steamboat Mid-Mountain (Snow Stake)
3" Vail Blue Sky Basin (Snow Stake)

Things are going about according to plan, and the high-resolution model forecast that pegged higher totals at the higher elevations of Summit County (Arapahoe Basin, Breckenridge, Copper, Loveland) is coming to fruition.

Central Mountains

20" Schofield Pass (SNOTEL Schofield Pass)
18-19" Crested Butte (Snow Stake)
11" Aspen Highlands (Sensor)
11" McClure Pass (SNOTEL McClure Pass)
10" Grand Mesa (Sensor)
8" Aspen Mountain (Sensor)
8" Monarch (Snow Stake)
7" Buttermilk (Sensor)
6" Snowmass (Sensor)
4" Sunlight (Estimate on their website, snow stake cam is down)

Things are also going according to plan here. The wind direction from the west-southwest is pushing Crested Butte (and surrounding areas) to the top of the list, with significant snow at Aspen and Monarch as well.

Southern Mountains

14" Wolf Creek (Report)
8" Purgatory (Report)
7" Coal Bank Pass (Sensor)
7" Silverton (SNOTEL Beartown)
5" Telluride (Report)

And these numbers are in line with expectations as well with no major surprises in my mind.

Deepness

There's nothing better as a kid or as an adult to wake up, check the cams, and see this.

We have all the snow stake cams here on OpenSnow, and you can easily add the cam to your "favorite cams" list by tapping the star icon in the upper right of each cam. Adding the cams to your favorites allows you to quickly see cams on your favorites screen with one tap.

You can also tap the movie icon on each cam and see a timelapse of the past 24 hours to know exactly when the snow piled up. In the case of Crested Butte, the majority of the snow fell on Thursday night.

Friday

The first runs of the morning will likely offer more snow than what's on the 500am reports since it will have snowed additional inches between 500am and the time that lifts open. Remember that this snow is dense and thick and heavy. It'll be surfy. 

Looking ahead, I expect that snowfall on Friday and Friday night will be about double what the Friday morning report shows. For example, the Aspen area received about 10 inches by Friday morning, and I expect at least another 10 inches to accumulate on Friday and Friday night. This should bring storm totals by Saturday morning in line with our expectations of 20-40 inches for the most favored areas and 10-20 inches for other areas.

The snow quality on Friday and Friday night should gradually improve or become a little fluffier thanks to slightly cooling temperatures, but the new snow will still feel thick based on our standards here in Colorado. 

Here's the CAIC 2km WRF snow forecast for Friday (our internal 1km high-resolution model doesn't yet have a 12-hour graphic yet to show snowfall during a single day or night, just total snow...we're working on it).

And below is the snow forecast for Friday night.

In terms of skiing and riding powder, it'll just get deeper on Friday, though also, on Friday afternoon, evening, and night, the snowfall may become more intermittent and not as steady with times of intense snow and times of lighter snow. The best quality powder could be on Saturday morning thanks to the lingering snow on Friday night and the cooler temperatures which should make Friday night's snow a little fluffier.

There are more storms in the forecast. Let's get to it!

Saturday

We'll see mostly dry weather during the day, though the morning will offer powder from the snow that fell on Friday and Friday night.

Storm #2: Sunday

• Snow: Sunday
• Powder: Getting deeper on Sunday, maybe good Monday morning
• Quality: Moderate, fluffier than Storm #1
• Amount Favored Areas: 8-16 inches
• Amount Not Favored Areas: 3-8 inches

I am not going to change the forecast that we've talked about. All signs are still pointing to snow for most of the day on Sunday and the snow quality will be fluffier thanks to somewhat cooler temperatures. The favored areas from the Thursday/Friday storm will once again be favored by this Sunday storm. If you enjoy skiing and riding while it's snowing, Sunday is the day. If you want calmer weather, there could be soft and fresh snow leftover on Monday morning.

Below is the snow forecast for the day on Sunday.

Storm #3: Monday Afternoon – Tuesday Afternoon

• Snow: Monday Afternoon – Tuesday Afternoon
• Powder: Best on Tuesday all-day
• Quality: Pretty fluffy
• Amount Favored Areas: 5-10+ inches
• Amount Not Favored Areas: 3-6+ inches

Yesterday, I talked about how this storm could extend itself from Monday night all the way throughout the day on Tuesday, and that adjustment still looks good. Temperatures will be colder than previous storms, so the snow quality should be fluffier. With fluffier snow falling on top of multiple feet of snow that fell on previous days, Tuesday could shape up to be a really fun day.

More Snow: Wednesday – Saturday

• Snow: Wed, Dec 29 – Sat, Jan 1
• Medium confidence that we'll see plenty of additional snow
• Low confidence in the details for each particular day

It still appears that there will be storm energy roaming around the Rockies with snow likely here in Colorado. But I have low to no confidence in the details. It's going to snow more, but I just can't say anything beyond that.

Break: Sunday, Jan 2 – Tuesday, Jan 4

These few days should bring a break in the snow as the main area of storminess to our north and west shifts and reorganizes. This break may give mountain operations crews a chance to dig out, reset a bit, and open more terrain (if they didn't get a chance to open all the terrain between now and then).

More snow after about January 5

All of the longer-range models continue to show a stormy weather pattern resuming for the Rockies on or around January 5th. That's too far out to know how exactly this will impact Colorado, but I expect more snow and good times into January.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS – The significant changes to OpenSnow that I've talked about are now live. If you're an All-Access subscriber (thank you!), you'll see no changes. If you are not an All-Access subscriber, here is an FAQ with more details about the upcoming changes, and we hope that eventually, we'll earn your support. Also, you can watch 2-3 minute videos about these changes made by myself, our Tahoe forecaster BA, and our Utah forecaster Evan. And finally, check out our Utah forecaster Evan's Twitter thread showing exactly how he uses OpenSnow's All-Access features to track powder.

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains