While snow coverage is solid and conditions are fun, there's not much fresh snow to talk about, so I'll start today with a look at temperatures.

Inversion

When there is snow cover on the ground and the nights have clear skies and light winds, temperature inversions usually develop. This means that by the morning, around sunrise, the coldest air will be found in the lowest elevations of the valleys with warmer air higher up at the mid and upper mountain.

We see these temperature inversions at most mountain areas, and the inversions are the strongest in areas with valleys that are surrounded by mountains on most or all sides.

An example is from Steamboat, where we find morning temperatures around -10°F at the valley bottom while the temperature is closer to +20°F at the summit about 4,000 feet high. Daytime temperatures are more similar across all elevations, with readings in the +20's across the mountain.

Below is the temperature during the last two days at Steamboat, from the valley bottom along US-40.

And below is the temperature during the last two days at Steamboat, from the summit weather station.

The practical implication of temperature inversions is to dress in layers. Heading to the base lifts/gondolas in the morning is a chilly experience, but taking the first turns at the mid-and-upper mountain is much warmer.

Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

The weather for the next three days will be dry with partly cloudy skies. We'll see times of completely clear skies and also times with high, thin clouds filtering the sunshine.

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday should rise into the 30s and the snow on south-facing slopes could get a little moist (and this moisture will then freeze the following night, making for crusty conditions the next morning until the snow surface warms again).

Temperatures on Thursday will be the warmest of the week with highs likely close to 40°F.

Snow on Friday

Yesterday, we talked about how some models showed a lot of snow on Friday and others showed very little or no snow. There is now a general consensus from most models that we will see snow, but amounts will likely be pretty light. The storm from the northwest should move across Colorado, but it will not entrain much moisture from the storm to the southwest, and limited moisture means limited snowfall.

My expectations are for light snow amounts, which is a dusting to maybe a few inches if we are lucky. The northern mountains and mountains east of the divide could see the most snow, though there is still quite a range of possibilities as shown on the University of Utah multi-model forecast below for Berthoud Pass.

Even though there is a big range, I am keeping my expectations on the very low side. Maybe we'll see a light refresh on Friday, and that's likely about the best that we'll do.

The bad news is that, as I have been mentioning, our current weather pattern is NOT a favorable one for snow here in Colorado and the Rockies.

The good news is that all models show a trend toward a more favorable weather pattern for snowfall as we move through the rest of January and into February.

The bad news is that, unless we get really lucky, the more favorable weather pattern might take some time to materialize, leaving us with at least a week or two of drier weather.

The best-case scenario is that we'll see our next significant snowfall sometime during the middle or end of next week (January 19-22).

The worst-case (and more likely scenario) is that we'll see our next significant snowfall during the final few days of January or into early February.

All three major extended forecast models (European Weeklies, American GEFS Extended, Canadian Extended) show a transition from a pretty unfavorable weather pattern during January to a more favorable weather pattern in February.

Exactly when and how this transition from an unfavorable to a favorable weather pattern occurs is not knowable in a confident way, but in my mind, I am hopeful to see that snow should return at the end of this potentially dry two-week period.

I will of course continue to post a new forecast each morning and will continue to look for any chances for snow (chances are NOT zero), but I wanted to focus this post on the longer-range perspective that we might see a lot of dry weather for the next 1-2+ weeks.

Thankfully, our snowpack is in good shape and the sun angle is still low, so even if we see zero or limited snowfall for the next 2-3 weeks, our mid-and-high elevation snowpack (the snow that's currently on the ground) will stay near or above the median.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Bluebird Backcountry, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains