Before looking ahead, here is another reader-submitted photo from this past Friday night's storm. It shows Beaver Creek, viewing from the ridge to the north of the ski area.

Many of the reader-submitted photos that I show are of Beaver Creek and Aspen because two people from those areas often send me photos. But I don't play favorites, so please send me photos ([email protected]) from your area and I'll post the best/relevant shots. While I can show photos from ski-area webcams and the professional photos from ski areas, I love showing images from readers, so please, send me your pics!

In the wake of our last storm, this weekend's weather has been mostly sunny, and we'll continue that trend through Wednesday.

A brief shot of cooler air will hit northern Colorado on Monday, but otherwise, readings on Tuesday and Wednesday will be warmer with continued sunshine.

Storm #11 on Thursday into Friday

The next storm will hit Colorado on Thursday and perhaps continue into Friday morning. While there is no true consensus in the models, the majority of potential future scenarios point toward the storm focusing its energy on eastern Colorado, which means that the most snow would fall east of the divide.

Below I will show you three models. I am looking at these models on the wx.graphics domain, a new model website created by Dr. Ryan Maue, a meteorologist who has a gift for presenting model data. This new site allows me to show graphics from the European model as well as other models that were previously restricted to non-commercial viewing, so I'll be showing more of this data in the future.

These maps show the total precipitation this week, and in Colorado, all of the week's precipitation will come from the storm on Thursday into Friday.

The European model, named the ECMWF, shows the most precipitation along and east of the divide, basically right down the middle of Colorado.

The British Model, named the UKMet, shows about the same thing as the ECWMF model, with a bit less precipitation.

And the American Model, named the GFS, is very similar to the UKMET.

Since these three models generally agree, and because other versions (ensembles) of these models also support the idea of the next storm focusing on eastern Colorado, that appears to be a likely outcome.

Expect the heaviest snow, perhaps 3-6+ inches, to focus on areas near and east of the divide, which will likely include the Denver area as well. The two open ski areas – Arapahoe Basin and Loveland – might be a bit too far west to get the most snow from this storm. Rather, the most snow might fall in the foothills east of these locations, focusing more on Eldora, Echo, Evergreen, and similar. Areas near and west of the divide could see flakes, but any accumulations look limited at this point.

I don't have a good feel for what will happen during the last few days of October and into early November.

The best consensus I can sense from the models is that if additional storms hit the western US, they may take a more northern and eastern track like we've seen from the last two systems. This could keep the cooler air and best chance of snow near and east of the divide. But, with just a bit of luck, any single storm could drop a bit further south and bring more snow to all of Colorado's mountains.

I'll keep you updated on the longer-range outlook, but first, we'll keep our focus on the storm Thursday through Friday and see if future model runs continue to support the idea of more snow east of the divide.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

Colorado Forecast Page → https://opensnow.com/state/co

Next Talk

I'll be giving a talk at Bentgate Mountaineering in Golden on Nov 8th. See you there!
https://www.facebook.com/events/1209665705844183/

Fundraiser

If you are in or near Buena Vista, there is a fundraiser on November 11th to raise money to bring the BV Special Education class skiing at the Breckenridge Outdoor Education Center. The event includes a movie and raffle. More info here:
http://thelariatbv.com/event/ski-movie-premiere-fundraiser/

Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains