Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 6 years ago December 4, 2017

Snow Monday, chilly rest of week

Summary

We are waking up to 2-5 inches of snow at most mountains in central and northern Colorado, and another 1-3 inches is possible as snow showers continue through the day on Monday. Then we'll stay chilly this week with a few snow showers, and I do not see any significant storms for at least the next 10-15 days. No bueno.

Short Term Forecast

Snow began to fall on Sunday evening and then the cold front moved through at around midnight, which added a bit of a kick to the snow. I was thinking that 3-6 inches in the northern and north-central mountains would be the range, and that's about where we are right now. Here are Monday morning's snow reports ordered from hight-to-low.

Winter Park - 7-8" (estimate)
Breckenridge - 5"
Steamboat - 5"
Aspen Highlands - 4"
Snowmass - 4"
Aspen Mountain - 3"
Copper - 3"
Eldora - 3"
Keystone - 3"
Arapahoe Basin - 2"
Beaver Creek - 2"
Loveland - 2"
Vail - 2"
Crested Butte - 1"
Monarch - 1"
Wolf Creek - 1" (estimate)

You can compare the snow report for all mountains in Colorado here: http://opensnow.com/state/co/reports

It appears that Winter Park is the winner so far with 7-8 inches. Their snow stake camera iced over this morning, which made it hard to see the exact snow amount. But when I underlaid a previous image where you can see the inch markings, it does appear that 7-8 inches is the current total.

For the rest of Monday, snow showers should continue with another 1-3 inches of accumulation in the northern mountains, which would bring storm totals in line with or just above the forecast. Also, dress warmly on Monday as temperatures will be in the upper single digits to the mid-teens.

At nearby areas, this storm dropped more snow with 6-12 inches in Utah and 6-8 inches in Wyoming.

Extended Forecast

Ugh.

The good news is that we'll see cold temperatures for the next few days, which will allow for 24/7 snowmaking.

The bad news is that we'll go from this weather pattern, which shows the snow that just hit us and the Rockies:

To this weather pattern, which will keep all of the snow and coldest air to the east of Colorado.

You can see that Colorado will be on the western edge of the storm track (which I drew as the blue line), so we will see occasional chances for light snow (next chance on Thursday) in the northern and eastern mountains. And since we are relatively close to the storm track, our air will be colder than mountains to our northwest, west, and southwest. That's the good news.

The bad news is that, after scouring every weather model that I can find, I do not see a significant storm within at least the next 10-15 days. Of course, the accuracy of forecasts beyond about 7 days decreases quite a bit, so there is a chance that a strong storm does sneak into Colorado. And some models do hint at a weak-ish system on December 15th, plus or minus two days. But I'm grasping at straws when I talk about these things. In reality, there appears to be a high chance that we'll see no snow or very little snow through at least December 15-20th.

When will this pattern change? I don't know. Things look pretty locked in right now. I see no real indications of movement. Anything could happen during the final 10 days of December as this is beyond the range of skillful weather forecasts, but at the same time, the current pattern will be hard to break, so I am not holding my breath that the snow will return soon.

We do have skiable terrain that is open here in Colorado as most mountains have been able to open some runs (Monarch and Wolf Creek have the most terrain open in the state, sitting at about 50% of acres open). But without significant natural snow in the next 2+ weeks, I do not think much more terrain will open, and the base depth will remain shallow.

Mountains to our north have more open terrain, like in Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Alberta, British Columbia, and Washington, though they will also see little or no snow during the next two weeks. You can compare the amount of terrain open for each state by going to the "Reports" tab on our website. For example, Washington: http://opensnow.com/state/wa/reports

If you want to ski powder in the next few weeks, the best advice I can give is to watch the lake-effect areas of the northeast, or fly to Japan where they are having an incredible early season and the snow should continue for at least another 2+ weeks.

I wish I had better news here in Colorado...the snow will come at some point, just not for the next 2 weeks.

Thanks for reading and sorry to end of a sad note. I love powder as much as you do, so when there isn't even a glimmer of hope in the 15 day forecast, I get pretty bummed:-( But hey, we now know what the downside looks like, and it can only get better from here...that's the positive take on it!

JOEL GRATZ

Announcements

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https://www.rei.com/event/uphill-skiing-and-light-tours-of-colorado/denver/186652

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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