Colorado Daily Snow

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By Joel Gratz, Founding Meteorologist Posted 6 years ago January 19, 2018

Complexities of the weekend storm

Summary

Expect the next storm to bring snow to the southern mountains on Saturday, and then all mountains will see snow from Saturday night through Sunday. I still think Sunday will be the best powder day with 5-10 inch snow totals for most mountains, though there are nuances that are making this storm a tricky one to forecast. Following the Sunday pow day, Monday should be dry, then we’ll see light snow Monday night into Tuesday, a stronger storm sometime between Wednesday night and Friday night, then another system around January 31st.

Short Term Forecast

We’ve been talking about the possibility of powder on Sunday for many days. Let’s get to the details.

All models now show that Friday night will be dry, snow will fall mostly in the southern mountains on Saturday, and then the storm will bring snow to all mountains on Saturday night and Sunday. This timing virtually guarantees that the best powder will be on Sunday for all mountains.

How much powder? That’s always the hardest question. This storm will strengthen rapidly as it moves into eastern Colorado and then east onto the plains, and this change of intensity can be a good thing (bringing more snow to Colorado on the backside of the storm) and it also usually means lower confidence in the forecast (because most models struggle to perfectly predict the exact timing and track of a storm that rapidly changes strength).

The University of Utah produces an ensemble forecast, which combines many versions of the American GFS model (darker blue lines below) and the Canadian model (lighter blue lines below).

Let’s look at forecasts from this ensemble model for regions across Colorado.

In the northern mountains, at Berthoud Pass, the range is 5-20 inches with an average 14 inches. To be safe, I’d expect the lower third of the range and know that if the flow from the northeast, north, or northwest is timed just right, we could see the higher end of the range by Sunday afternoon.

In the central mountains, at McClure Pass, the range is 5-16 inches with an average of 10 inches. This forecast has held reasonably steady over the past few days.

Also in the central mountains, at Monarch Pass, the range is 2-14 inches with an average of 8 inches. That’s quite a wide range. Again, I’d expect the lower half of this range, and perhaps we’ll get lucky with a few bands of heavier precipitation and see higher amounts.

In the southern mountains, at Red Mountain Pass (between Telluride and Silverton), the range is 13-25 inches with an average of 16 inches. This is the highest forecast of anywhere in the state, and the model has been relatively consistent with the totals, so my confidence is pretty high that this area should see a foot of snow, and perhaps more if we’re lucky.

Finally, also in the southern mountains, at Wolf Creek Pass, the range is 6-15 inches with an average of 11 inches. Wolf Creek usually does well with southwest winds, which we’ll see on Saturday and Saturday night, so I feel pretty good about Wolf getting to double digits.

It’s fun to do this analysis, but even as the data shifts one way or the other, the conclusion that Sunday will be the best powder day of the next 5-7 days has not changed. Keep expectations reasonable and hope for the storm to come in on the high end.

Extended Forecast

Monday should be dry.

On Monday night and Tuesday, the northern mountains might see light snow.

Then from Wednesday night to Friday night, all models show a reasonably strong storm hitting Colorado. It will not snow this entire time, but this is the range of possible timing for the snow. A powder day late next week is possible.

After that, we’ll be dry for a few days, and then most models agree on another storm hitting Colorado on or around January 31st.

Thanks for reading!

JOEL GRATZ

PS - I am at Kingfisher Heli in British Columbia, Canada with a great group of friends through Monday, and so I might be a bit slower to respond to emails, and my forecasts might be a bit briefer due to the fact that I’ll be out in the pow for most of the day. I will, of course, share a full trip report in about a week. Thanks for understanding!

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Geography Key

Northern Mountains
Steamboat, Granby, Beaver Creek, Vail, Ski Cooper, Copper, Breckenridge, Keystone, Loveland, Abasin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass, Eldora, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Along the Divide
Loveland, Arapahoe Basin, Winter Park, Berthoud Pass

East of the Divide
Eldora, Echo, Rocky Mountain National Park, Cameron Pass

Central Mountains
Aspen, Sunlight, Monarch, Crested Butte, Irwin, Powderhorn

Southern Mountains
Telluride, Silverton – north side of the southern mountains | Purgatory, Wolf Creek – south side of the southern mountains

About Our Forecaster

Joel Gratz

Founding Meteorologist

Joel Gratz is the Founding Meteorologist of OpenSnow and has lived in Boulder, Colorado since 2003. Before moving to Colorado, he spent his childhood as a (not very fast) ski racer in eastern Pennsylvania.

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