Europe Daily Snow
By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 11 months ago January 28, 2024
All Quiet on the European Front
Summary
We will remain dry through at least the middle of next week. The eastern Alps may get grazed, as they did this past week, with a storm to the east starting Thursday of next week. Austria would be on the warm side of the storm so snow levels would be high and limit accumulations. The next change for a stormier pattern still looks to be possible around the 8th to 10th of February.
Short Term Forecast
There's not a whole lot to talk about in the short and mid-term, with a ridge dominating the weather for the next seven to ten days. As was the case last week, the models are hinting at a storm tracking down the eastern side of this ridge that could graze the eastern Alps. This pattern favors the Austrian Alps and further, it lacks cold air. At upper elevations, this storm could produce up to 20 cms from Thursday night through Friday on the high end.
For next weekend, there is some disagreement among the models. Some of them shift the ridge farther west, bringing the storm track closer to the Alps. This would, once again, favor the eastern Alps but perhaps bring precipitation farther west than some of the recent events. Still, the models at this point show very different scenarios. You can see different locations of the upper-level low from the three models below.
The American model, on the far right, has the storm tracking much closer to the Alps. The European and Canadian models, however, keep the system farther east, with minimal impacts.
We will have to keep an eye on this timeframe and see if the other models trend closer to the American or vice-verse.
Extended Forecast
The models are more consistent on the pattern change around the 8th to 10th of February. While this isn't a major shift in the current pattern, the deterministic and ensemble models show the ridge over western Europe tweaking with the storm track moving farther west closer to the Alps. This isn't a home run for stronger and colder storms across the region, but it is more likely than the setup we have currently.
Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!
Luke Stone
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