The potential system early next week is looking better on the most recent model runs, with increasing odds of significant snow accumulations. Before we get there though, we will have a weak system moving through the Pyrenees that will graze the Alps as well. 

This storm will move in from the west, kicking off some rain and high elevation snow in the Pyrenees on Saturday. Overall this will be a warm storm with high snow levels (~ 1800m) and limited accumulations in the Pyrenees. Still,5  - 15 cm is possible in the upper elevations. 

This storm may also bring some light rain and snow to the western Alps but it looks pretty minor at the moment. 

Our attention then shifts to Tuesday afternoon/evening when a stronger and colder storm is expected to arrive. This system should branch off of an upper-level low to the northwest and drop down into southwestern Europe. The upper-level low will push a cold front into and just south of the Alps, while the action coming off the primary low will bring decent dynamics. However, the exact track of the piece or pieces of energy coming off the upper-level low will determine the wind direction, and therefore the best orographics, in the Alps. 

Some of the recent models runs bring the system across the Alps, with primarily west and northwest winds. This would favor the western and northern Alps. Other model runs take the system farther south, with an initial period of west/northwest winds that then transition to south/southwest winds. This would bring significant snow, but less overall, to the northern and southern Alps. 

So we will need another day or two for the models to come into better agreement on those details. Below you can see the latest snow forecasts from the American and European models. They highlight the differences in storm tracks/winds that would result in significant differences in snow totals across the northern and southern Alps. 

In the long range, the models are starting to show the potential for a more favorable pattern early next month. This could bring a period with stronger storms and more significant snow.

My next post will be on Friday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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