We've had a lot of breaks between storms over the last couple months and we're in another one right now. Outside of some scattered showers in the Pyrenees this week, we should stay dry through Friday morning. The storm moving in from the west/northwest will first impact the Pyrenees, followed by the western Alps through the weekend. 

There are a lot of details surrounding this storm that still need to be ironed out, including the timing. Snow could return to the Pyrenees as early as Thursday night, or perhaps not until Friday, with heavy snow moving in around Saturday night. In the Alps, we should see the snow hold off until Sunday, with the heavy snow arriving on Sunday night. 

We should see just light rain and snow in the Pyrenees as the storm approaches in the Thursday night through Saturday period. Then, as the storm moves inland, both the Alps and Pyrenees should see a round of very heavy snowfall. 

The flow with this storm will generally be out of the south, as it will become a closed low with winds moving counterclockwise around it. This will favor the southern side of the Pyrenees, the southern French Alps, and the southern side of the Swiss and Italian Alps. Below you can see the strong upper-level low approaching from the Atlantic and then moving across Spain into the Mediterranean.

Let's take a very, very early look at the potential snow totals that will be possible from this storm, from the European and American models. 

Both models show between .5 - 1 m + in the Pyrenees and 25 - 50 cm for the southern and southwestern Alps. At this time, the American model shows much more than that for the Alps. The ensembles show similar totals so right now confidence is increasing on a significant snow storm for both ranges.

The European model is hinting at a storm track that would result in some wrap around north/northeasterly flow. This would produce some accumulation snow on the northern side of the Alps in Austria. We will have to fine tune the snow totals as we get closer. 

The American model has now joined the European and Canadian in bringing a trough down from the north, as well as a second system from the west/northwest. These two systems will compete for impacts across the Alps and Pyrenees but we could see another round of snow later next week into the weekend as a result, but its too early for any additional details at this time. 

My next post will be on Wednesday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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