The next storm system to impact the Alps and Pyrenees will arrive later this week and really get going over the weekend. The models have remained fairly consistent over the last few days regarding the first part of this storm. There still remains some uncertainty, however, after the upper-level low moves over land in Spain.

Before the storm makes landfall, the Pyrenees should see some snow/rain showers as early as Thursday night and continuing through Saturday. The intensity should pick up on Saturday afternoon/night in the Pyrenees with heavy snow falling through around Sunday afternoon/night.

In the southwestern Alps, heavy snow should arrive on Sunday afternoon/night and then spread into the southern Swiss and Italian Alps. In the southwestern Alps, this storm will be wrapped up by Monday night/Tuesday morning. It is at this point that the models begin to diverge. 

Some of the guidance has the upper-level low weakening with the storm winding down on Monday. Other models keep heavy snow going on the southern side of the eastern Alps and even into the northern side of the Austrian Alps as well. 

The models do agree that another upper-level trough will drop down from the north, but there is some uncertainty on the track and how far south it gets. This will determine how intense the next rounds of precipitation are from around Tuesday through Thursday. At the moment, these look like weak to moderate waves.

Below are the current snow forecasts from the American, European, and Canadian ensemble models. 

The ensembles show good agreement on the location of heavy snowfall and solid agreement on totals, with the Pyrenees expected to see the most snow. The southern Alps, especially in the southwestern Italy and southern Switzerland, are favored as well with predominantly southerly flow. At this time, I think the upper elevations of the Pyrenees should see at least .5 - 1 m while most of the southern Alps can expect at least 25 - 50 cm. If the American model is correct, the eastern side of the southern Alps could see totals in the .5 - 1 m range as well. These totals very well may be bumped up as we get closer to the main event. 

There isn't a lot of cold air with this storm, so snow levels will be somewhat high. In the Pyrenees, they will start around 2000 m and fall to around 1500 m during the storm. In the Alps, the cold front, already unimpressive upon its arrival in the Pyrenees, will be mostly dismantled by the time it reaches the Alps. Thus, snow levels will remain around 1500 m for most of the storm. 

As mentioned, the models diverge early next week, and even more so toward the end of the week into the weekend. Additional accumulations are expected, but at the moment these look like minor to moderate events. Let's hope one or two of these becomes stronger and brings additional heavy snow. 

My next post will be on Thursday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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