The forecast remains on track for two solid storms to impact the northern Alps from Friday through Tuesday of next week. It's time to narrow down the snow forecast and timing. Later in this post, I will also discuss the storm potential for the middle and latter part of next week. 

The first storm will move in tonight (Friday night), bringing light snow to the northern Pyrenees and eastern Alps. An upper-level low will drop down into France from the northwest and track between the Alps and Pyrenees. The low-pressure system that hung out over southwestern Europe for several days is still over the Mediterranean and will funnel some moisture into the eastern Alps. This moisture, combined with the northerly flow from the approaching storm, will kick off some early snow showers in this region.

Heavier snow arrives on Friday and continues through Sunday, especially in the eastern Alps. Below is the latest snow forecast from the high-resolution WRF model for the first storm through Sunday.

And the Pyrenees as well.

Generally, 20 - 40 cm is expected for most of the northern Alps from Switzerland through eastern Austria. We could see 25 - 50 cm for favored parts of the Swiss Alps, including the Graubunden, Nidwalden, Obwalden, and Saint Gallen regions. Similar totals are likely for much of the northern Austrian Alps, with the Salzburg, Niederosterreich, Steiermark, and Tirol regions coming in on the high end of that range or even above it. Totals will be less in the French Alps, with 5 - 15 cm expected in the north, decreasing further to the south. The French Pyrenees will do well, with 10 - 20 cm expected.

Snow levels will start around 1500 to 1800 m and fall to 1200 m in Austria and 1350 m in Switzerland. The coldest air from this first front will be in the Pyrenees, where snow levels will fall to around 900 m on Saturday. Snow will taper from west to east on Sunday, with showers lingering through Sunday evening in the eastern Austrian Alps.

The second storm will drop down from the northwest on Sunday but will be tracking farther east overall, favoring the Austrian Alps even more. More northerly winds will produce a favorable setup in the northern Alps, especially in Austria. This is a fairly fast-moving storm as well, with snow falling from Sunday night through Tuesday afternoon. The heaviest snow is expected from Monday morning through midday Tuesday. 

The latest guidance keeps most of the significant accumulations confined to the Austrian Alps, with totals dropping off fast in the eastern Swiss Alps and farther west. Below is a general idea of where the heaviest snow will fall from storm number two.

The Austrian Alps should see another 20 - 40 cm, with localized totals again in the 30 - 60 cm range. This storm should wrap up on Tuesday evening. The models are showing the possibility of a weak closed low traversing the Alps from east to west on Wednesday and Thursday that could bring some moderate snow to the southern side of the Alps, but this looks like a smaller event compared to the two northern Alps storms. 

Some recent guidance is now taking the third storm a bit farther west, which could lead to more snow in the eastern Alps. As I mentioned earlier this week, small shifts in these storms tracking east of the Alps can result in big changes. All the guidance from yesterday showed this storm well east of the Alps, but a westward trend on Thursday now brings some snow into the region on Friday and Saturday. I am not buying into this trend just yet, so let's see how the models handle the track of the upper-level low in the next few days. 

Beyond next week, the long-range models keep an active pattern going in Europe, but there is still a lot of disagreement on what type of active pattern will set up. 

My next post will be on Saturday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

NEW: Forecast Range Graphs

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