The first of two Nordstaus is underway across the Alps and will bring significant accumulations through Sunday. The second arrives late Sunday night and will deliver another big thump of snow through Tuesday. The models are now more consistently picking up on a third storm, a Retour d'est that will track from west to east across the Alps, with significant snow possible in the southwestern Alps.

Heavy snow is falling across the Alps this morning and will continue throughout the day, with the emphasis shifting to the Austrian Alps overnight. Moderate to heavy snow will persist in this area through around midday Sunday before becoming more showery and then tapering off in the evening. An additional 20 - 40 cm is expected for the favored areas in the northern Austrian Alps, in the Salzburg, Steiermark, Niederosterrich, and Tirol regions. 

The northern side of the central and especially eastern Swiss Alps will see 10 - 20 cm during this time, with totals dropping off sharply in the western Swiss and northern French Alps. 

Below are the expected totals through Sunday evening. 

The next storm will drop down from the north on Sunday night, and the second Nordstau will start hammering the Austrian Alps. This storm will be more powerful, with colder temperatures and stronger winds. Favored areas can expect 30 - 60 + cm from this one, while much of the central and eastern Austrian Alps will receive 20 - 40 cm. Given the latest storm track, the western Austrian Alps should see 10 - 20 cm. 

The models continue to show a very sharp cut-off in snow totals, and the area west of that line will see limited snow totals. This line looks like it will be near the border of Switzerland and Austria. Still, a small shift in the position of the upper-level low and the western Austrian/eastern Swiss Alps could see more significant totals. 

Winds will be very strong Sunday night through Monday, increasing avalanche danger, leading to poor visibility, and possibly impacting upper-mountain lift operations. 

I am still watching for a potential Retour d'est from Tuesday night through Thursday. The models are not in agreement at this time but some of the guidance is showing significant snow with low snow levels, with accumulations in the 50 - 100 cm range on the Italian side of the southwestern Alps. With the snow this region has had over the last several weeks, this could produce a few really good powder days. 

You can see the low crossing the Alps from east to west below.

A lot of uncertainty remains with this potential storm, so stay tuned for updates as we get closer. 

The deterministic and ensemble models still show major differences in the mid- to long-range pattern. There has been some trend toward a drier pattern starting later next week, but there isn't a consensus yet. If the late-week storm trends farther west, we could see more snow in Austria. After that, some models still show the possibility of more storms. 

My next post will be on Sunday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

Alps Regions:

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