Saturday will be dry with a weak inversion in place. A storm will largely miss us on Sunday with only flurries expected Sunday AM at this point. Next week, we will see a NW flow pattern with a possible storm on Wed-Thu but confidence is low due to poor model agreement. A stormy pattern could potentially set up next weekend (Jan 27-29) as well.
Short Term Forecast
Forecast for Saturday:
We're starting out with some thick low to mid-level clouds on Saturday morning along with some valley flurries under this cloud layer. Only a weak temperature inversion is in place, however, with morning temperatures starting out in the single digits at all elevations.
The cloud layer seems to be located between about 7,000 and 9,000 feet on both sides of the Tetons with clear skies above.
The low clouds should eventually erode by midday with mostly sunny skies on Saturday afternoon and highs in the upper teens to low 20s (similar at all elevations). Winds will also be light.
Forecast for Sunday:
A cold front will arrive on Sunday morning, but our snow chances are trending toward "minimal" at this point with a storm passing too far to our west and south.
I do think we'll see enough moisture arriving with the cold front to result in a round of flurries/light snow showers on Sunday morning, but accumulations will be minimal.
By Sunday afternoon and evening, winds will shift from westerly to northeasterly, resulting in a further drying trend across the Tetons while areas east of the Continental Divide in Central Wyoming pick up some light snow.
Highs on Sunday will be in the low teens at 9,000 feet and upper teens to low 20s in the valley. Winds will generally be in the 10-15 mph above 9,000 feet with gusts to 20 mph.
Clearing skies can be expected on Sunday night with overnight lows falling well below zero in the valley.
Forecast for Monday to Tuesday:
Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions can be expected on Monday with an inversion expected to persist throughout the day. Highs will reach the mid teens at 9,000 feet but will only reach the upper single digits to low teens in the valley.
A weak disturbance will arrive from the northwest on Monday night-Tuesday morning, but it's looking like any snow accumulations will be minimal with this feature.
We should clear out again by Tuesday afternoon with highs in the single digits at 9,000 feet and low 20s in the valley.
Outlook for Wednesday (Jan 25) to Thursday (Jan 26):
I'm starting to see some hints of a potential northwest flow snow event during this period, but it's far from a certainty as model projections are all over the place. A stout ridge of high pressure will be located over the West Coast, but I'm now seeing signs of energy and moisture sliding down the eastern periphery of the ridge.
It all depends on how far east or west the storm track sets up. The European Model has the most favorable projection at this time with the storm track far enough west for a potentially decent snow event for the Tetons.
The American GFS Model, on the other hand, is keeping the storm track too far east and is projecting a total miss with zero snowfall at this time.
The latest Canadian Model data did not come through this morning due to a data feed issue. The latest German Model and British Model runs seem to be trending more toward the European Model's favorable projection, so that is good news. However, we still have a lot of time left to see how this shakes out, so while there is some hope, confidence is low.
If the storm does come to fruition, I would be looking at Targhee as they tend to receive the most snowfall when winds are out of the northwest.
One other thing to keep an eye on are temperatures. The latest trends are hinting that the (possible) storm will start cold and end warm, so we could be looking at an upside-down snow event with snow density increasing over time.
Outlook for Friday (Jan 27) to Sunday (Jan 29):
We're now seeing signs of high pressure shifting further west away from the coast during this period, with a trough of low pressure setting up across the Northwest and Northern Rockies. This could potentially open the door to a storm or a series of storms during this period.
Confidence in the details is low this far out, but at the very least, I think we'll see some snow opportunities during this timeframe.
Outlook for End of January/Early February:
The pattern continues to look favorable during this period with moisture-laden storms likely returning to the West Coast and working their way inland with snow potential for the Tetons.
Thanks so much for reading and have a great weekend! Next update on Monday (Jan 23).