Sunday - Wednesday

Overall, the forecast hasn't changed much through Wednesday. Still expecting colder temps throughout this coming week than the previous one along with breezy conditions over the upper part of the mtn. 

Highs will be in the mid to high 30's today, Sunday with temps lowering for Monday during the passage of the mostly dry front. Temps will dip to the upper 20's and mid 20's across the mtn. The passage of the dry front will very likely just result in increased winds and a lack of moisture.

There is still a possibility we'll see a snow shower or 2 on Monday into Monday night but once again accumulations are not likely. The gusty winds will be present both Sunday and Monday with West winds gusting up to 60 MPH Monday during the day. Good chance we'll see lift closures over the top of the mtn on Monday. 

Tuesday & Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 20's over the mtn. Winds will increase again on Wednesday with 30 - 50 MPH gusts over the mtn, potentially making another upper mtn. lift closure day. 

Thursday

The most interesting and active weather day in the next 5 will be Thursday. Pretty much every model is now suggesting the flakes to start flying at some point in the middle of the day. Since the Thursday system is part of a longer storm it's likely we'll see snow fall through Saturday with varying intensity. 

Southwest winds will increase significantly out of the Southwest with gusts 70 - 80 MPH so it could be quite the stormy day on Thursday as the moisture comes in. Temps will be cold in the mid to low 20's. 

The differences in the models for precip amounts through Thursday night are somewhat significant still. The GFS suggests we could see close to 2 inches just in that time period before Friday night, while the Euro is much lower with only 1.25 inches. That's as much as 10 inches of snow with the cold temps. Since it's likely to keep snowing into Friday I want to hold off on a full forecast before tomorrow. 

Either way it's looking more and more likely that we're going to see 8 - 18 inches of snow across the mtn. I'm giving a big range because of the spread in the models. 

The storms are likely to continue through through at least Saturday, if not Sunday depending on which model you're looking at. The Euro suggests a longer period of storminess through the weekend, while the GFS wants to cut things off sooner in the weekend and drop slightly less overall precip. 

Looking at the Ensemble Means of the GFS vs Euro the GFS shows approximately 1 inch less precip overall through next Sunday. So there's definitely still model differences. Some models, like the higher resolution WPC blended show close to 6 inches of liquid by Sunday morning! That's considerably more than the GFS and Euro and I'm not buying that yet. I think the model is overdoing it at this time, so we need more time to figure out which model solution is favored. 

I'll keep you updated throughout the week, but it's looking more and more likely we'll see a decent storm or set of storms through next weekend. 

Till the next one... Mike out.