Colder and windy on Monday as a dry front swings through. Sunny skies for Tuesday and Wednesday with cool temps. Thursday our storm finally arrives and lasts into Friday morning. Another storm is likely over the weekend before drying next week.
Short Term Forecast
Monday - Wednesday
Monday will be the windy day as the dry cold front swings through. I'm still expecting the possibility that we could see a snow shower but odds are high that we won't see accumulations. Temps will be in the high 20's at the base and low 20's across the mtn. but the winds will be very strong over the top of the mtn. They are already gusting up to 70 MPH out of the Southwest. That will continue throughout the day. You can expect upper mtn. lift closures.
Tuesday & Wednesday will be the nicer days of the week, if that's your thing. Plenty of sun with highs in the mid 30's across the mtn and less wind than Monday. Although it's likely that winds will start picking up on Wednesday afternoon ahead of the storm for Thursday. Gust up to 60 MPH are possible out of the Southwest again by late in the afternoon.
Thursday - Friday Storm
The main event... what we've been waiting for since the first week of November. A real snow storm. I have good confidence at this point that we'll see a moderate storm. Meaning, I'm expecting at least a foot of snow up top at this time.
The models still have a spread with the GFS closer to 1.25 inches of liquid and the Euro is showing closer to 2.3 inches. The WPC blended model is more in line with the Euro. Overall, the storm will be cold with snow levels staying below 5K FT the whole storm. Temps will be in the low 20's at the base and teens over the top of the mtn.
The snow is likely to start falling by Thursday morning and last into Friday early morning. The period of heaviest snow is likely Thursday night. The winds will be fierce with gusts over the summit approaching 100 MPH, so skiing on Thursday will be quite problematic for any upper mtn terrain as I expect lift closures.
I'd like to say that the summit could squeeze out 2 FT out of this storm but at this time given the model spread I'm weary of that. My forecast today is for 10 - 14 inches at the base and 16 - 20 inches over the summit. I'm hoping that there's model agreement by Wednesday when I can issue the final forecast.
Friday will be a breezy day (30+ MPH winds out of the Southwest) still as the storm clears out but we should have some peeks of sunshine.
Another storm is more likely over the weekend at this time. The exact timing and track of it are naturally a bit uncertain still at this time. We could double down though on snowfall if everything sets up correctly.
Both the Euro & GFS show a healthy storm and the GFS is actually showing a larger storm at this time. But, if you remember from yesterday that's the opposite of what is showing then. So there's some flip flopping going on between models runs at this time. That's common when the storm is more than 5 days out.
I'll keep you posted as the week goes on but I like what I'm seeing with regards to more weekend snow and powder days!
Till the next one... Mike out.