Summer is ending. Winter is coming! Snow showers could begin as early as tonight, Friday night, and continue through Sunday evening. Next week we will see a return to fall with milder temps and sunny skies. The following weekend into the next week of October could be stormy yet again...
Short Term Forecast
Hello fellow readers!
It's been a little while since I've had a forecast for snow. But here we are.. on Winter's Doorstep! Now that we are in both astronomical and meteorological fall our chances for seeing snowfall sky rocket. And it goes without saying that Mammoth is historically in a good spot to see snow in both late September and early October because of it's high elevation and overall favorable location.
We're already seen some snow in both August and September this year, but this particular storm will finally deliver truly measurable snowfall at the summit and maybe even Main Lodge. Could this be Winter's first hurrah of many or just a tease before an Indian summer in October? We shall see...
Friday - Sunday Snow
We're looking at a low pressure system dropping down out of the Gulf of Alaska. That's usually a good sign if we want cold and snow. And this system is going to track just enough off the coast to wrap in a little bit of moisture to make it worth our while.
The other aspect to this system is wrap around moisture that may be a factor in increasing snowfall totals on the East side of the Sierra including Mammoth. North and Northeast East winds could bring more snow showers on Sunday.
The main part of the storm begins Friday night and lasts through Saturday evening with snow showers off and on throughout the 24 hour period. Sunday we could see the wrap around moisture.
Some of the models are showing a stronger North to Northeast flow on Sunday which would increase our snowfall totals. I'm going to be conservative, but I do expect to still see some activity on Sunday.
Snow levels will be in the 8K FT range so snow is possible to accumulate at Main Lodge. It will be quite wet and sloppy though. Main Lodge could see 1 - 3 inches with the summit getting upwards of 3 - 6 inches. 6 inches is possible the greater wrap around moisture and stronger North to Northeast flow.
We dry out next week and go back to our fall temps. Highs at Main Lodge could reach back into the mid 60's with plenty of sunny weather and limited winds. The next storm system could approach our region after the 7th- 8th of October. Models are still in flux as we're in the transition season. I will keep you posted on any updates as we get this season started.
I'll be posting a seasonal outlook for our region in the coming weeks. I've had lots of time to analyze the state of ENSO and other factors so I'll have plenty of musings for you.
Can't wait to get this winter started! I know it was an exceptionally short summer season, but as a snow lover I don't have an issue with that. After the many drought years we've endured a large season with a short summer might be our repayment from the Snow Gods!
Till the next one... Mike out.