Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

Heads up, there may be fresher snow! Read the latest Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow

By Zach Butler, Meteorologist Posted 2 years ago January 15, 2022

Track shifts west

Summary

A cold start to the weekend will make you want to bundle up on the slopes. Clouds will thicken throughout the day Sunday as a major storm system brings heavy snow to the region. The track has shifted slightly furth west which means the eastern half of the Mid-Atlantic will see some snow but mostly a mix and rain. Areas on the western half can expect 10-24 inches! Let’s get into the details…

Update

A cold morning is greeting us throughout the region with wind chills in the teens and single digits to the south, and well below 0 in the north. Temperatures won’t warm much on Saturday, but winds will weaken which should make skiing and riding more tolerable.  Here is a look at Seven Springs in southwestern Pennsylvania Friday with 42% of the terrain open.  

The Nor’easter continues to shift slightly further west which will move warmer air along the eastern half of the Mid-Atlantic. The western Mid-Atlantic is still looking to be on the snow zone with some big totals. The northeastern Mid-Atlantic in the Catskills should still see some good totals as well. The key remains the exact track of this storm system which will determine how far warm air moves inland and how far heavy snow moves westward. Keep thinking of the storm as a circle, with the bottom right of the circle bringing warm air with mixed precipitation and rain. The other areas of the circle will see moderate to heavy snow with the top left portion of the circle seeing the heaviest snow. The track of the storm will continue to waiver slightly over the next few days. Here is a look at Thursday evening's forecast (left) and Friday evening's forecast (right) from the Euro model. 


The “L’s” on the map show the potential locations of a storm system. 

As you can see, the Euro model has come to a closer agreement with a westward track (closer compaction of “L’s” on the map above). The further the storm moves inland, the further warm air will make precipitation mix/rain, and the further heavy snow will extend westward. The key to this storm is the track which will determine who sees warm air and who can stay on the cold side of the storm. The other key to this storm is the heavy snow bands that will develop on the northwest side of it. In Nor’easters, atmospheric dynamics develop one or two very heavy snow bands. Last winter (2019), the December Nor’easter snow band gave Binghamton 40+ inches of snow. I do not think this will happen with this storm, but there will be a very heavy snow band on the northwest side of this storm that will extend into western Pennsylvania and New York. Here is a look at the Euro model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 10 am Sunday, January 16th to 4 pm Tuesday, January 18th. 

The heaviest snow will be on the northwest side of the storm, observed by the dark blue from 4 am to 10 am in western New York and western Pennsylvania, with snowfall rates 2-4in/hr. Areas outside of this heavy snow band will still see a lot of snow, with a gradual contrast in snow accumulations to the east. The Catskills in New York will be able to hold onto cold air as well, which will make for some decent totals. Areas further south in the eastern Mid-Atlantic will see precipitation begin as snow Sunday night but change to rain Monday morning. On the northwest side of this storm, temperatures will be cold which will increase our snow ratios and allow for lighter snow. As far as snow accumulations, let’s take a look at the GFS (right) and Euro (left) model's depiction of snow accumulations by Monday evening. 


Big totals are expected so get your gear ready for Monday and next week! As the storm moves out of the region Monday evening, lake effect and upslope snow showers will develop in the western and northern Mid-Atlantic. This will produce an additional 1-5 inches Monday evening and through Tuesday. Snow showers will exit Tuesday evening with another storm system tracking toward our region. 

This next storm system will move into the region from the west and bring a mix of snow and rain. Light snow is more likely further north and west with this storm on Wednesday and Thursday, January 19th and 20th.

That's all for this forecast and thanks for reading. I'll continue with one more daily update prior to the Nor'easter, so make sure you check back on Sunday morning. 

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow. 

About Our Forecaster

Zach Butler

Meteorologist

Zach Butler is currently a PhD student in Water Resources Science at Oregon State University. He just finished his master's in Applied Meteorology at Plymouth State University in New Hampshire. Originally from Maryland, he has grown up hiking and skiing up and down the East Coast. When not doing coursework, he enjoys cooking and exploring the pacific northwest on his bike.

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