Clouds will increase throughout the day with the smell of snow in the air. The track of the storm has remained consistent from the last forecast which means a track through the center of the region. This will bring snow to the west and snow/mix/rain to the east. The good news is that precipitation will begin as snow for the whole region. There is a lot going on with this storm precipitation wise so I will break it down as a few quick summary sentences then show the latest model run. 

As this storm moves north early Monday morning, precipitation will change to rain in eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southeastern New York. There will be an area of sleet and freezing rain in the southern to central Mid-Atlantic as the storm moves north as well. This means a change to sleet and freezing rain for Virginia, central Pennsylvania, and even parts of south-central New York. Areas in the western Mid-Atlantic will see mostly snow for the whole storm, but models have shown a few areas of sleet mixing in as warm air moves further west. The heaviest area of snow continues to target the northwestern Mid-Atlantic in northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York. That means you Bristol, Holiday Valley, Peek'n Peak, Kissing Bridge, and Swain. Here is a look at the NAM 3 km model’s depiction of precipitation type and intensity from 5 pm Sunday, January 16th to 1 pm Monday, January 17th. 

A wide range of precipitation accumulations will affect the region. The western Mid-Atlantic will see the most snow and with cold temperatures hanging on, snow ratios will be higher and allow for lighter snow to fall. Depending on how far sleet and freezing rain move west, that could greatly reduce snow accumulations as well. Areas in the central to eastern Mid-Atlantic could be looking at a Trace-.10 inches of ice. As far as snow accumulations, not much has changed, so let's take a look at the National Blend of Models (NBM) and the NAM 3km model´s depiction of snow accumulations by Monday evening. 

The NAM 3 km moves a lot of warm air into the central Mid-Atlantic and greatly reduces snow accumulations while the NBM keeps snow hanging on for a few more hours. I think the snow ratios will be higher in the western Mid-Atlantic as well, which the NAM 3 km shows nicely. The forecast greatly depends on how quickly warm air pushes north and west which makes it really hard to say what model will be more accurate at this point.  That is why I am showing the two model's snow accumulations above. 

Following this storm system, lake effect and upslope snow showers will develop in the northern and western Mid-Atlantic Monday night and continue through Tuesday. Snow showers will be brief but intense and drop an additional 1-5 inches by Tuesday evening. Another storm system will track to the north of the region on Wednesday, January 19th but will be much weaker. This will bring a few light snow showers to the northern Mid-Atlantic with minimal to light snow accumulations with a few scattered rain showers further south. 

Looking further into next week, seasonable weather will affect the region which will allow resorts that do not see a lot of snow this weekend, to be able to make snow and keep slopes fresh. The weather pattern for next weekend (January 22nd and 23rd) looks favorable for cold weather and more chances of snow continuing. Here is a look at the Euro model´s predicted upper-level pattern from Thursday, January 20th to Sunday, January 23rd. 

The cool colors show cooler temperatures and favorable conditions for precipitation.

Make your plans this week to find the best place to ski with great conditions throughout the region, especially in the western Mid Atlantic. I’m going to let the storm do its magic and have the next forecast on Tuesday morning with the latest reports and best areas to ski this week. Keep a tab on our Twitter account @FindEastSnow for live updates on this storm system. Thanks for reading and enjoy the storm!

Zach Butler, Meteorologist for the Mid-Atlantic Daily Snow.