Midwest Daily Snow

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Thankful for Snowmaking Operations

Summary

Thursday, we're thankful for snowmaking operations as it is the main reason we have so many resorts already opening or opening soon. Some light rain and snow showers will impact the Midwest Thursday, with other areas seeing some morning fog and light drizzle. There is a chance of some light rain and snow on Sunday, mainly for areas in Wisconsin and lower Michigan.

Short Term Forecast

Opening Day Forecasts & Forecast Thursday-Sunday:

Snowriver, Thursday - Highs in the upper 30s, mostly cloudy, maybe a very brief rain shower with light winds, 5-15 mph. 

Boyne Mtn, Thursday - Look for temps in the middle 40s for a high with maybe a little bit of morning drizzle, winds 5-15 mph. Rain showers arrive for the overnight period.

The Highlands, Thursday - Similar to Boyne Mtn, maybe a degree or two cooler for a high, winds 5-15 mph. 

Nub's Nob, Thursday - Look for similar conditions as the Highlands - enjoy the opening day! 

Mount Kato, Friday - Lots of sun, warm, highs in the upper 40s, winds 5-15 mph. 

Welch, Friday - Should be fairly sunny, highs in the middle 40s, winds 5-15 mph. 

Spirit Mtn, Friday - Sunny, winds 10-20 mph, highs around 40. 

Mont Du Lac, Friday - Similar to Spirit Mtn, enjoy opening day! 

Devils Head, Friday - Mix of sun and clouds, highs in the middle 30s with winds 15-25 mph. 

Wilmot Mtn, Friday - High near 50, winds light, 5-15 mph with plenty of sunshine. 

Caberfae Peaks, Friday - Mix of sun and clouds, highs in the upper 30s. A few lingering rain or snow showers possible in the morning. Winds 10-15 mph. 

Crystal Mountain, Friday - Similar forecast to Cabaerfae, enjoy opening day! 

Shanty Creek, Friday - Highs in the upper 30s, mostly cloudy, winds 5-15 mph. 

Giants Ridge, Friday - High around 37, sunny, winds 5-15 mph. 

Detroit Mtn, Friday - Highs in the upper 30s, sunny with winds 10-15 mph. 

Cascade Mtn, Saturday - Spring-like conditions with abundant sunshine, highs around 53, winds 5-15 mph. 

Buena Vista, Saturday - Mix of sun and clouds, highs in the upper 30s, winds 5-15 mph. 

Thanksgiving day will bring some morning fog and drizzle giving way to some sun and clouds for much of the Midwest. Southern Wisconsin and lower Michigan will have a few rain showers to contend with today with a mix of rain and snow quickly passing through northeast Minnesota and the UP. 

The HRRR forecast precipitation type does a good job of illustrating the timing and location of the rain and snow showers on Thursday:

The next precipitation chances arrive Sunday, with models giving us some hope for some rain and snow. As of yesterday, the models and their respective ensembles had a much weaker system further to the south. Today they have a better-organized system and some chances for a few inches of snow.

At this time, the areas most likely to see snow on Sunday would be from southern Wisconsin up to northwest lower Michigan and southeast portions of the UP. The ECMWF and GFS ensemble probabilities of greater than 1" are in fairly good agreement, which is shown below:

This system will be worth monitoring as the warm side (which is currently looking like portions of lower Michigan) could see rain, which could impact resorts from Bittersweet up to Caberfae and potentially as far north as Nub's Nob.

I do feel confident that the resorts just northwest of Detroit would be in line to see rain on Sunday if the latest suite of forecast models are accurate. The rain would impact Alpine Valley (MI), Pine Knob, and Mt Holly. 

Extended Forecast

The suite of forecast models continues to suggest another system is poised to impact the region on the last day or two of November. This system could be on the warmer end of things, which would mean a mix of rain and snow for the Midwest. As we get closer I will continue to add more details. 

As this system exits the region a return to more seasonable temperatures, if not below normal, appears on tap. The suite of models has been doing quite well in the 5-12 day window the past few weeks and if that continues, we will see the return of widespread lake effect snow for a period of time. 

-Croix

Announcements

Resorts being added to the forecast maps:

I will be adding numerous resorts to the maps and graphs I show, here is a preliminary list that will get added:

  • Boyne Mtn
  • Mt Brighton
  • Caberfae Peaks
  • Welch Village
  • Bittersweet
  • Pine Knob
  • Mount Holly
  • Little Switzerland
  • Shanty Creek
  • Chestnut Mountain
  • Sundown

I am also working on a survey to collect feedback and better serve you, the readers. Hope to have the survey ready by the end of this week! 

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