Good morning, New England. It’s a frosty one out there this morning! Currently, temperatures in the valley areas are well into the negatives. Expect trail conditions to firm and fast today.

A ridge of high pressure will continue to crest overhead during the morning hours, bringing calming winds. A weak disturbance will begin to push its way across the region shortly after the high crests, bringing cloud cover and a chance for snow showers mainly for the southwestern extent of New England. As southerly flow increases, temperatures will rise to around 20 and winds will blow at 10-15 mph as the day carries on. Expect no more than half an inch of snow in southwestern Vermont and central Massachusetts.

Warmer air will continue to invade the Northeast through the day on Friday. Summit wind speeds will ramp up as low pressure approaches from the south and tightens the pressure gradient. A series of trailing disturbances may spark up scattered snow showers across the Northeast through the day on Friday, with a chance for mixed precipitation as warmer air continues to intrude the region. Accumulations will be negligible. Here is the latest run of the NAM showing scattered precipitation across New England:

SLP and precipitation type loop courtesy of College of DuPage

Temperatures will rise into the mid-upper 20s by the mid morning hours, with winds increasing to 35-45 mph as the day comes to an end. Increased winds toward the end of the ski day could put some chairs on hold, so plan on riding during the morning hours to get the maximum amount of runs.

A weakening low to our north will bring scattered precipitation to New England during the early morning hours on Saturday. Northern areas of New Hampshire and Maine can expect light snow showers, with accumulations totalling no more than a dusting. Other areas will likely see rain.

On Saturday, high pressure to our north and a low pressure system to our south will both converge upon New England. If this high remains as strong as models are suggesting, it will likely keep most of the rain from the low to the south of the mountains. Temperatures will be on the rise as high pressure builds on Saturday, with summit temperatures in the upper 30s.

A similar set up occurs during the first part of next week. Remnants of the low pressure system to our south may further strengthen and track through southern New England on Sunday evening into Monday. Initially, this could bring some rain and/or mixed precipitation to central New York, southern Vermont, and southern New Hampshire. However, another colder low pressure system moving in from eastern Canada could interact with the low pressure area to the south, turning precipitation over to snow on Monday-Tuesday. Here is the current run of the GFS, showing expected tracks of both systems as well as precipitation type:

SLP and precipitation type loop courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Both the ECMWF and the GFS show this interaction, but there are still some uncertainties with regard to when the storm will arrive and how much precipitation it will bring. We will have more details on this storm as well as for the weekend forecast in the coming days! Be sure to check back tomorrow for updates.

Thanks for reading!

Sam Webber, Plymouth State Graduate Student

Lauren McCarthy, Plymouth State Graduate Student