With the first mountain snow of the season in the Greens and Whites it's time to kick off the New England Daily Snow for 2021-22. Happy New Year. ?

Where are we with winter so far?

During the first and second week of November we saw a string of cooler temperatures across the region with overnight temperature dropping back into the low 20s slope-side that promoted snow making across the higher terrain resorts in Vermont (e.g., Killington, Jay), New Hampshire (e.g., Loon), and Maine (e.g., Sunday River). Many resorts hit social media with teasers for the start of the new season:

On Friday 11/12, we had an unfortunate onslaught of strong south-southeasterly winds, warm temperatures, and heavy rain, but these high-elevation bases held up okay as slope side temperatures remained in the 30s to near 40F and the storm was quick to move out to sea.

The first real snow

The warm Friday storm was quickly followed by a potent storm on Saturday 11/13 that featured thunderstorms and tornadoes across Southern New England and several inches of new snow across the high terrain of Vermont and New Hampshire. Many resorts took to social media once again to tout their first real coverage of the season:

Maximum snowfall totals from this storm topped 4" in southern Vermont in Woodford on Rt. 9 crossing the southern portion of the state with a string of 2-4" reports above ~2000 feet along the spine of the Greens. Killington came in with a 3" report on Sunday morning with new snow depth totals over in Tuckerman Ravine at Hermit Lake also reporting in with 3" on Sunday morning.

Ongoing Storm

Quick on the heels of that second storm was a third storm that led to light snow falling at elevation once again on Sunday night (11/14 into 11/15) that is on its way through Maine here on Monday morning. This storm brought another round of light snow to elevated regions with another 2" reported up in Tuckerman Ravine.

Radar animation on Monday morning (11/15) courtesy WSI.

Through Tuesday

More snow showers are on tap on Monday as cold westerly flow sets up in the wake of this latest storm. You can see it already taking shape in the radar animation above. This flow will tap some Great Lakes moisture and combine with some cold air aloft to produce snow squalls and upslope snow showers across Vermont throughout Monday accumulating another ~1-3" at elevation in the Greens, perhaps as much as ~6" at Jay Peak, and a couple inches over in the Whites through Tuesday. It'll be a bit too warm in the valleys, but some flakes in the North Country are not out of the question at lower elevations.

We are still early in the season with all resorts still closed but looking to spin their lifts soon in the next 10 days by Thanksgiving or Thanksgiving weekend. How do we get there? We want to snow. At this point, we'll take either cold weather for snow making or natural snow whenever we can get it. It's all about the base at this point. 

Later this week

The forecast for the back half of week for Wed-Fri is looking rather progressive with two chances for snow across northern New England. Here is the run down:

• The first storm tracks well to our north. Its warm front crosses the region late on Wednesday with light rain likely and some mix at elevation overnight.
• Thursday is warm with snow levels well above ridge lines and temperatures warming into the 40s before the aforementioned storm's cold front sweeps through on Thursday night.
• Crashing snow-levels gives us our first shot at accumulating snow (~1-2" at elevation) on Thursday night.
• Friday is blustery with upslope snow showers bringing the second round of snow. Temperatures will drop back below freezing with ideal snow-making conditions setting up for the weekend.

Take a look at the forecast animation from the GFS model to get the play-by-play visual:

Next week (Thanksgiving Week):

The weather models are teasing a chance at some big snows next week, but we're talking 7-10 days out in weather "fantasy" land. In week-2 we like to look at the ensemble weather models for an idea of what to expect in terms of probability, spread, uncertainty, etc. I've queued up a comparison between the 30-member ensemble from the GFS model and the 50-member ensemble from the ECMWF model. Take a look at the forecast for the middle of next week (highlighted) for Central Vermont (read on for the interpretation)

What am I looking at Jay? You're looking at the two-week forecast of snowfall from each ensemble member (left to right) in the table on top of the image and a summary of the "most likely" snowfall across the bottom. What you want to see are dark blue (>6") and pink (>10") squares in the top image highlighting decent 24-hour snowfall totals. It looks like approximately half of the ensemble members in each model are suggesting the potential for >6-10" of snow, which is confirmed by the bottom time series chart in the Tuesday-Wednesday time period. 50% chance of something good next week. 50% chance of nothing (i.e., there are a lot of white squares, too). What does this tell me? The atmospheric flow setting up over the U.S. in the next week has potential, and I'll take it whatever I can get in November, especially heading into a nice long weekend with some time off for the Holiday. I'd hedge and get my skis ready if I were you. You know, just in case. 

On Wednesday (this week), I'll break down the evolution of the atmospheric flow that could bring us our first big storm just in time for Thanksgiving. For now, enjoy some fresh flakes and think snow. 

Thanks for reading and welcome to the new year.

-Dr. Jay | New England Daily Snow