Jackpot totals of 3 feet were observed in New York, Vermont, Massachusetts and just shy in New Hampshire. Mount Snow reported an incredible storm total of 46". Snow continues, lightly, across the northern Greens and Whites on Wednesday. Rain and snow showers persist into the weekend.
Short Term Forecast
The reports are piling in from across the region. Tuesday's storm was one for the record books with 3-foot totals all being reported in New York, Massachusetts, and Vermont, and just shy in New Hampshire. Sometimes folks like to say a storm over-performed. Another way: the human forecaster under-performed! I definitely played the downside of this storm, but the high-end forecasts from models and the OpenSnow blend all did very well with this event. Totals were highest where the east-northeast flow generated upslope flow with cooler/better temperature profiles at elevation. The Catskills, Adironacks, Berkshires, Taconics, southern Greens, and Monadnock/Worcester hills all got plastered with >2 feet. Here in Plymouth, NH along I-93 tucked in the Pemigewasset River Valley? 2" of glop. Just up the road at Waterville? 17".
Select resort reports coming in this morning include:
- Mount Snow: 46" (read it for yourself)
- Jimmy Peak: 36"
- Bromley: 32-34" at the base
- Magic Mountain: 31" at base and 34" estimate at top
- Killington: 18"
- Waterville: 17"
- Gunstock: "More than a foot"
- Saddleback: 8"
- Mount Washington: 7.2"
- Pleasant: 5"
- Sugarloaf: 5"
And... as of yesterday... the Mt. Mansfield snow stake depth is finally back above average on the season.
Latest radar animation ending at 7:30AM on Wednesday morning.
Our Nor'easter continues to spin and slowly pull away from New England on Wednesday morning. Snow showers are ongoing across the region especially across the Green Mountains, Whites, and some coastal locations. In between these spiral-looking bands, there are some breaks of blue skies -- I'm looking at some blue skies currently from central New Hampshire. Expect these snow showers to continue throughout the day and for best odds for additional accumulating snow in upslope locations across the Greens and Whites. Models are still liking an additional 3-6" possible across northern Vermont, including the OpenSnow Blend, throughout the day with 2-4" possible in the Whites.
Temperatures will generally top out near 30F on the slopes on Wednesday with a brisk north wind occasionally gusting 40-50 mph; a wind hold is not out of the question. Rain showers are likely as we head into Thursday and Friday with some high elevation snow showers as temperatures climb to 35-40F to round out the week.
The weekend forecast calls for a return to some cooler weather with light snow and snow showers likely across the North Country. At Killington, temperatures drop Saturday morning from the low 30s into the 10s overnight into Sunday with a gusty west wind. Odds of snow are low, dropping from 40% early on Saturday to below 10% on Sunday, but if it does snow, a dusting to an inch is possible. In the valleys, temperatures are likely going to be mid-40s with rain showers early on Saturday. More widespread sunshine is possible on Sunday with temperatures in the 30s.
High pressure is likely to return in earnest early next week with more sunshine expected on Monday and Tuesday, but with it comes temperatures climbing into the 30s on the slopes and mid 40s across North Country valleys. Given the March sun angle and warming temperatures, just like last week, we'll see a trend toward more spring like snow surfaces during the day firming up overnight.
ECMWF ensemble model grid for 24-hour snowfall through March 30th.
Model guidance continues to suggest that more snow may be possible during the second half of March during the 23-30 March window. Both the ensemble "control run" and the 50 members are suggesting better than 50% odds of something next weekend specifically on 25-26 March. There is still a ton of uncertainty at 10 days out, but it's worth keeping an eye on. On a technical side, the atmospheric flow that is projected to develop over North America next week is tied to the evolution of a ridge-trough pattern that is currently over eastern Russian and Alaska. The ridge resembles what we call an "omega" block and the trough is cut-off from the typical westerly flow. Models are notorious for breaking down blocks and "picking up" cut-off troughs too soon, and therein is the uncertainty.
The DailySnow will return on Friday.