Friday through Sunday will be fairly straightforward: dry, cool, and breezy with more sun on Friday and Sunday than on Saturday and highs in the 20's and 30's. A weak disturbance will miss us to the north on Saturday though we could see a stray snow flurry or two in the northern mountains.

Things get much more interesting starting on Monday with multiple chances for snow through the end of the week.

Snowy outlook Monday-Tuesday
On Monday, January 18 a storm will cut-off from the main west to east current and drift southwest toward southern California where it will dictate the weather in our region through the end of the week. Late Monday night into Tuesday a second piece of moist storm energy is forecast to follow the parent storm and drop south over New Mexico and this should be our first wave of snowfall for this cycle.

In addition to helping increase moisture, the parent storm will also drag down cold air from the north and east which will help set the stage for snow with temperatures in the optimal range of -10 to -14 Celsius (7 to 14 Fahrenheit) overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

Looking at potential snowfall totals (*enter here standard disclaimer that we are 4 days out still so much can change still), the WPC compilation of global models shows .1 to .4 inches of liquid precipitation by 11 am Tuesday morning, or 1-6" of snow.

Then from 11 am Tuesday through 11 am Wednesday we see lighter amounts (1-2" snow) in the northern mountains as precipitation shifts southwest. This tells us that snow could linger some during the day Tuesday but the most snow is projected to fall before 11 am Tuesday.

Bottom Line

• Snow should start late Monday with most snow falling overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.
• First chair Tuesday, January 19 should be soft conditions and possibly storm skiing.
• How much snow lingers on Tuesday will depend on final timing but we could see some additional accumulation on Tuesday.
• Wednesday morning a wildcard depending on how things shake out with continued snow on Tuesday.
• We are 4 days out and the track of the storm energy producing this snow has been trending west so hopefully it won't shift too much more away from New Mexico.

By Wednesday, January 20 the main storm is forecast to be parked over Baja California and its position has moved further west and south with each model run. From this point forward on Wednesday, our confidence is very low on what happens next. 

At some point, this storm is forecast to move back east. How much it retains strength and how far south the storm tracks will determine whether New Mexico receives another round of precipitation or not from this cut off storm around the Thursday-Friday-Saturday timeframe. The storm could also fizzle. And how the main storm track to our north interacts with this Baja low is also unknown at this point.

We will closely monitor potential solutions in the coming days. 

Then around January 24th, the main storm track is projected to drop south and bring another storm to our region. This is way out in the 9-10 day fantasy land, but I would pencil in January 24th and 25th in the calendar as days when fresh snow might be found.

Thanks for reading and I will post again on Saturday.

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected] 

OpenSnow Forecast Data Update

On Tuesday (1/12), we began updating the automated forecasts on OpenSnow with a proprietary blend of data from the GFS (American), GDPS (Canadian), and ECMWF (European) weather models.

Previously, we combined information from our local forecasters, the National Weather Service (NOAA), and data from the ECMWF (European) weather model. This method only provided hourly data for the United States and relied on a single model to produce our snow forecasts for the next 10 days.

Why is this new forecast data better than the old forecast data? The benefits include:

• Blending multiple global models increases accuracy and confidence in the forecast.
• Hourly data for any location in the world.
• Proprietary snow-to-liquid calculation to improve accuracy, especially in colder environments.
• Improved method for calculating the snow level (elevation that separates rain from snow) to provide a more realistic forecast, especially at the beginning of storms and during times of intense snowfall.
• Ability to create a forecast for any location and elevation to ensure that we are forecasting conditions on the mountain and not for a nearby town.

We also plan to add even more global and high-resolution models into our proprietary forecast blend over time. Our goal is to create the most accurate snow forecast and we're just getting started.

The data can be viewed as hourly forecasts for the next 5 days and daily forecasts for the next 10 days. Available data includes:

• Chance of Precipitation
• Day & Night Snow Forecast
• Day & Night Snow Level
• Daily High & Low Temperature
• Hourly Temperature
• Hourly Wind Speed
• Hourly Wind Gust
• Hourly Cloud Cover %

This new blend of forecast data is available on OpenSnow for over 2,000 locations around the world and we are adding new locations every day.

Explore Locations → OpenSnow.com/explore