On Monday morning we are just catching our breaths from the last storm cycle as the next cycle is now underway with a quick 1-2" already falling early Monday around Pajarito and Santa Fe.

Here is Paja's deck cam on Monday at 7:30 am.

Surf's up baby! Time to grab your wide surfing boards for this warm and wet cycle.

But before we jump in, here are a few more shots from the unreal conditions over the past weekend.

Word on "Main Street" is that conditions were all-time on Kachina Peak on Saturday and Sunday.

And here is an ode to Red River's season that ended on Sunday, but not before a bluebird powder day with plentiful face shots on Saturday.

The first wave of snow on Monday into Tuesday

The state of play Monday through Thursday will be driven by yet another atmospheric river coming onshore over the Pacific and bringing boatloads of moisture into the Land of Enchantment.

On Monday morning, a line of snow showers is crossing the central mountain chain and dropping a few inches of fresh just in time for early uphill access and first chair at Ski Santa Fe.

The big caveat, or at least the unknown variable with this storm cycle, will once again be warm temperatures and snow-to-liquid ratios.

Below is the liquid precipitation through Tuesday morning showing 1 inch of liquid possible in the Sangres and Jemez. If we can get to a 10:1 ratio we could have double digits by Tuesday morning. But if we are in the 6 to 8:1 range we would be looking at 6-9" of snow in the northern mountains.

Either way, Monday will be fun on-and-off storm-skiing and Tuesday morning will offer powder.

Second wave of snow Tuesday through Wednesday

Temperatures will remain warm on Tuesday through Wednesday for the next phase of the storm cycle.

Another inch of liquid is likely with the same snow ratio conundrum with high temperatures just below freezing on Tuesday and Wednesday above 10,000 feet.

Higher elevations at Taos and Ski Santa Fe will have the coldest temperatures and best chance at higher snow ratios, whereas Sipapu and Pajarito will likely have slightly warmer and lower ratios.

Remember last week when we had a margin of error of 20 inches at Ski Santa Fe with many model ensembles? Well, this storm cycle is equally complex with a range between 15" and 25" for Taos Ski Valley with the University of Utah's ensemble that takes into account temperature and terrain.

Bottomline

• Monday morning will offer soft turns followed by on-and-off storm skiing.
• Tuesday should be a powder day with 6-12" 24-hour totals across the northern mountains.
• Another 6-12+" falls on Tuesday into Wednesday for another powder day on Wednesday.
• Snow quality will likely be dense and surfy. 
• Winds will be gustier than last week's storm cycle which could affect snow quality but hopefully won't cause any lift closures.
• Deep totals of 1-2+ feet across the northern mountains by Thursday morning.
• Here are my snowfall forecasts for Monday through Thursday morning:
  • 8-14" Pajarito
  • 3-7" Sandia Peak
  • 8-14" Sipapu
  • 3-9" Ski Apache
  • 12-18" Ski Santa Fe
  • 14-20" Taos Ski Valley

Colder air moves in on Thursday and Friday with light snow showers continuing and keeping conditions soft going into the weekend.

We are looking at back-to-back weeks of insane conditions and the best we have seen since the 2018-2019 season.

¡Viva la nieve!

Thanks for reading and I will be back on Tuesday with a storm update.

JULIEN ROSS
[email protected]

Taos Avalanche Center for all of your backcountry forecasts

Always consult TAC for the latest avalanche forecasts!

New Mexico Geography Key

Northern Mountains
→ Red River, Taos Ski Valley (north side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Angel Fire (northeast side of northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Sipapu (middle of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Ski Santa Fe (south side of the northern mountains - Sangre de Cristos)
→ Pajarito (southwest side of the northern mountains - Jemez)

Central Mountains
→ Sandia Peak (Sandias)
→ Mt. Taylor backcountry (San Mateos)

Southern Mountains
→ Ski Apache (Sacramentos)
→ Ski Cloudcroft (Sacramentos)