The Kiwi snow season has officially started after Mt Hutt, Cardrona and The Remarkables opened on Saturday. Although early season conditions exist and limited terrain was on offer, conditions weren't half bad in the Southern Lakes after light snowfalls Friday and Saturday provided a layer of white dust atop a solid base of man-made snow.

Coronet Peak still needs a couple more centimetres to open, which may have already happened after snow showers did in fact turn up there late Sunday (I mentioned it was a possibility as models were 50:50 on it). Reports on this haven't come in at the time of writing. The snow showers also turned up as promised in Canterbury on Sunday, but this was accompanied by strong northwest winds which forced Mt Hutt to close for day two of their season - no doubt it won't be the last time.

Treble Cone, Porters Pass, and Whakapapa and Turoa on Mt Ruapehu are scheduled to open on the 28th and 29th of June, while club fields elsewhere will open thereafter as conditions allow.

Forecast for Monday & Tuesday (17th & 18th June)

Cold winds from the southeast develop over the South Island on Monday as a low-pressure system passes over the North Island. These cold winds will push in clouds and fog-like conditions before light snowfall gets started over Canterbury from midday Monday, then over the Southern Lakes around dusk.

For the Southern Lakes, only a skiff of snow is expected before it mostly clears up early Tuesday as winds turn to the northeast, leaving behind a mostly cloudy day.

Canterbury, on the other hand, will see snowfalls become moderate-heavy during the early hours of Tuesday. Snowfall will then begin to ease from Tuesday afternoon as winds also turn northeast here. By the end of the day, we should be looking at 48-hour totals of 15-30cm which will significantly improve things here.

Forecast for Wednesday to Friday (19th to 21st June)

During this period, cold northeast winds over the South Island will gradually turn northwards and warm a little, as that slow-moving storm in the Tasman Sea (that one I've discussed in previous forecasts) once again exerts control over the country.

This will bring mostly high-level cloud to the Southern Lakes over these 3 days, although low cloud will likely fill the valleys and basins below resort altitude and snow showers may spill over the Main Divide and hit Treble Cone during Thursday and Friday.

Canterbury will be much more closed in with reduced visibility as low-level cloud will push into resorts here more square-on, with light snowfalls on Wednesday and Thursday mainly hitting Mt Hutt and Porters Pass (up to 5cm could accumulate), and not so much the Craigieburn fields, before clouds break apart for a nice day on Friday.

The Tasman storm is expected to continue affecting the country throughout the coming weekend (22nd & 23rd June) and into early the following week. Sometime from Sunday 23rd of June onwards, model forecasts expect another cold southeast flow will develop over the South Island, potentially dumping a heavy load of powder over the course of a few days. Models tend to get a little carried away this far into the future, but it's very promising and worth keeping a close eye on.

Thanks for reading. I'll keep these forecasts coming every Monday, Wednesday & Friday throughout the southern hemisphere season.

Mike O'Connor