Northwest Daily Snow

Short Term Forecast

The snow outlook for the PNW is definitely trending in the right direction. After Thanksgiving, a series of storms will impact the area through next week while a cold airmass will also set in, resulting in low snow levels from this weekend on. Great timing as most ski resorts will be opening up over the next week or two.

Forecast for Western Washington:

Lingering snow showers/flurries from the last storm will gradually taper off on Wednesday, with mostly cloudy skies early becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High temperatures will warm up into the mid 30s at ski resort mid-mountain levels. 

For Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, it will be a quiet day with abundant sunshine over the mountains, while interior valleys could see fog/low clouds persist as an inversion sets up. Highs will warm up into the mid 40s at ski resorts.

A weak storm will arrive on Friday, which will essentially be the remnants of an atmospheric river from Northern BC that will be working its way south into the U.S. and weakening as it does so. However, a cold front will push across the Cascades as this storm arrives, resulting in lowering snow levels as the event progresses.

Snow/rain will begin across the North Cascades early Friday morning before reaching areas south of I-90 around midday. Snow levels will start out 5,000-6,000 feet initially, but will quickly drop behind the cold front and will be in the 3,000-3,500 foot range (possibly lower at times around Baker) by Friday afternoon.

Most of the snow will fall during the daytime hours on Friday before tapering off on Friday evening. However, backside snow showers will remain possible through the night, especially over the North Cascades.

Snow Totals (Fri AM to Sat AM): 

I'm expecting Baker to pick up 4-8 inches, while Stevens and Alpental will see 3-6 inches. Crystal, White Pass, and the lower portions of Snoqualmie Pass should see 2-4 inches. Mission Ridge will only see a dusting as they will be in the rain shadow. 

I should also note that the American GFS Model is coming in much higher on snowfall compared to other models, but this is an outlier so I'm leaning toward the majority of the other models with more tempered expectations. 

Following Friday's appetizer, attention then turns to a much stronger storm expected to impact the area on Saturday and Sunday. Colder air will also be arriving with this storm with snow levels near or below base areas on Saturday, before dropping well below ski resort bases (down to 1,000 feet or so) on Sunday.

We will see a relative lull after Friday's storm though light snow showers will remain possible across the North Cascades throughout the day on Saturday. The heaviest and most widespread snow is then expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon, with additional snow showers lingering through Sunday night.

Snow Totals (Sat AM to Mon AM):

We are within 5 days of this event now, so I'll go with an early snow forecast of 10-20 inches for ski resorts throughout the Washington Cascades. This will be good-quality snow with colder air settling in, especially on Sunday. 

Forecast for Eastern Washington/Northern Idaho:

Lingering snow showers/flurries from the last storm will gradually taper off on Wednesday with additional light accumulations possible, mainly around Lookout Pass. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will persist with highs in the upper 20s to near 30 at ski resort mid-mountain levels.

For Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, it will be a quiet day with abundant sunshine over the mountains, while interior valleys could see fog/low clouds persist as an inversion sets up. High pressure building in from the south will also result in a substantial warm-up with highs reaching the upper 30s to low 40s.

A weak storm will arrive on Friday, which will essentially be the remnants of an atmospheric river from Northern BC that will be working its way south into the U.S. and weakening as it does so. However, a cold front will arrive at the onset of the storm, resulting in low snow levels (below base areas) and gusty winds throughout the event. 

Snow will begin around Schweitzer by midday Friday with the heaviest snow expected there on Friday afternoon. Across the I-90 corridor, snow will begin in the afternoon with the heaviest snowfall rates expected during the evening. Lingering snow showers will gradually taper off after midnight on Friday night.

Snow Totals (Fri AM to Sat AM): 

I'm expecting snow totals to range from 3-6 inches at Lookout Pass and Silver, 2-4 inches at Schweitzer and Bluewood, and a dusting to 2 inches at 49º North and Mt. Spokane.

I should also note that the American GFS Model is coming in much higher on snowfall compared to other models, but this is an outlier so I'm leaning toward the majority of the other models with more tempered expectations. 

Following Friday's appetizer, attention then turns to a much stronger storm expected to impact the area on Sunday. Colder air will also be arriving with this storm, resulting in good snow quality along with low snow levels.

We will see a relative lull after Friday's storm though occasional light snow showers/flurries will remain possible across the Panhandle during the day on Saturday and into Saturday evening. The heaviest and most widespread snow is then expected from late Saturday night through Sunday evening, with additional snow showers possible through late Sunday night.

Snow Totals (Sat PM to Mon AM):

We are within 5 days of this event now, so I'll go with an early snow forecast of 4-12 inches for ski resorts throughout the Inland Northwest, favoring the Idaho Panhandle.

Forecast for Oregon:

Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet day with decreasing clouds and warmer temperatures as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the south. Highs will top out in the upper 30s to low 40s at ski resort mid-mountain levels in the Cascades. Colder air will remain in place across the Blues in Northeast Oregon with highs in the upper 20s to low 30s.

For Thanksgiving Day on Thursday, it will be a quiet day with abundant sunshine over the mountains, while interior valleys could see fog/low clouds persist as an inversion sets up. It will be an unseasonably balmy day as well with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s in the Cascades, and mid 40s across the Blues.

Similarly warm temperatures can be expected on Friday, though clouds will be on the increase as a weak storm approaches from the north. This storm will essentially be the remnants of an atmospheric river from Northern BC that will be working its way south into the U.S. and weakening as it does so. By the time it reaches Oregon, very little moisture and energy will remain.

Light rain and snow showers will reach Northern Oregon by midday Friday and continue into the evening before tapering off later in the night. Snow levels will start out around 6,000 feet at the onset, but a cold front arriving at the leading edge of this moisture will result in snow levels falling to 3,000-3,500 feet by Friday evening.

I'm only expecting light snow amounts out of this event, ranging from 1-2 inches around Mt. Hood and also across the Blue Mountains. Further south, areas from Hoodoo to Mt. Bachelor will only pick up a dusting to an inch with flurries/sprinkles at best further south.

After this storm, we will dry out again on Saturday, but it will be a cold and blustery day with highs in the 20s across both the Cascades and the Blues.

Attention then turns to a much stronger storm expected to impact the area on Sunday. Colder air will also be arriving with this storm. Snow levels are currently projected to start out around 4,000 feet early on Sunday, before dropping below 3,000 feet by later in the day on Sunday.

Snow is expected to begin early Sunday morning and continue throughout the day on Sunday and into Sunday night. Keep in mind that we are still several days out, so adjustments to timing may be needed moving forward.

Snow Totals (Sun AM to Mon AM):

We are within 5 days of this event now, so I'll go with an early snow forecast of 10-20 inches for the Mt. Hood resorts, 8-16 inches for Hoodoo, Bachelor, and Willamette Pass, and 4-10 inches for the Blue and Wallowa Mountains. 

Extended Forecast

Outlook for Monday (11/28) to Sunday (12/4):

We will technically be in-between storms on Monday, but lingering northwest flow snow showers will remain possible throughout the region, favoring Oregon and the Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels will be quite low on Monday as well.

Another strong and cold storm is possible in the Tuesday (11/29) to Thursday (12/1) timeframe. I suspect this could be a deep event for most of the region, and snow levels are currently projected to be very low (possibly even approaching sea level) with good quality powder snow also expected. 

We're still close to a week away, so nothing is set in stone yet, but so far it's looking good.

Looking further out, the pattern should remain fairly active heading into the weekend of December 3rd-4th and temperatures are also expected to remain below average. For the extended range, this is outlook is an improvement compared to my last post.

Beyond December 4th, we may start to dry out some as a ridge of high pressure off the West Coast inches closer to the coast itself. However, confidence is low as there has been a lot of back and forth in long-range models in the 10+ day range recently.

Thanks so much for reading and Happy Thanksgiving!

I'm going to be pressed for time with the holiday, family activities, and travel over the next couple of days so it will likely be Saturday before I can post again – just in time for the Saturday PM to Sunday storm. 

ALAN SMITH

PS - I took this survey about "Sliding With Respect" and it would be wonderful if you could contribute your thoughts as well. The survey is being run by a group at Fort Lewis College in Durango. Take the survey.