Partly sunny with increasing clouds Saturday. Two small storms move through Sunday into Monday and again Tuesday into Wednesday with snow showers each day. A possible break Thursday before another weak storm is possible for Friday the 24th. The storm door looks to remain open through the end of the month, but most storms look to be fairly weak.
We will start the day with mostly sunny skies and then increasing clouds Saturday. Highs into the 30s up top and 40s for the base.
Sunday - Monday System:
Snow showers are expected to move in early Sunday morning and continue into Monday morning from a weak system moving through. Highs into the 30s Sunday and dropping into the 20s on the upper mountain Monday. Ridgetop winds increasing from the southwest with gusts up to 60-70+ mph by Sunday evening into Monday morning before falling, which could affect some upper mountain lifts.
The snow levels could be hovering near to just above the base Sunday with some rain mixing in. Then falling below the base Sunday night into Monday. We could see the snow showers end for a short time Monday afternoon-evening.
Here is the updated snowfall forecast for totals expected by Monday afternoon. Most of the forecasted amounts are expected to fall by opening Monday morning.
- 4-8 inches at the base.
- 6-11 inches at mid-mountain elevations.
- 8-13 inches up top.
Tuesday - Wednesday Storm:
A stronger storm moves into southern CA Tuesday into Wednesday. The Tahoe basin will be on the northern edge. Snow showers move back in Tuesday morning with steadier snow showers possible later Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Then lighter and more scattered snow showers for Wednesday that end Wednesday night.
The winds turn to the south-southeast Tuesday and gust up to 30-40+ mph up top into Wednesday morning. Then falling as they turn back to the north and west Wednesday. Highs into the 20s up top and near freezing at the base.
With the southerly & easterly flow, the Tahoe basin typically gets shadowed from heavier precipitation, especially northwest of the lake. That is why we expect lighter amounts with this storm. Snow levels will be below the base and any snow that falls on the mountain should be fairly dry and fun to make some turns in.
Here is the updated forecast for snowfall totals expected from Tuesday through Wednesday night. Around 70% of the forecasted amounts could fall by Wednesday morning.
- 3-7 inches at the base.
- 4-8 inches at mid-mountain elevations.
- 5-9 inches up top.
We could see a brief break Thursday with partly sunny skies and highs into the 30s. Then we are watching another storm that could bring us a few inches of snow Thursday night into Friday the 24th. We'll continue to watch the trends on that storm as we get closer.
The storm door is forecast to remain open through the last week of March, but we are into the spring pattern and stronger storms will be harder to come by. The next chance of a storm looks to be around the 27th-28th. We could see a few weak systems through the end of the month.
We'll continue to watch the trends to make sure no bigger storms show up. The long-range models suggest that the unsettled pattern with snow showers could continue into the 1st weekend of April. We'll continue to watch the trends on that as well. We are hoping for a nice weekend for the WinterWonderGrass Festival!