Tahoe Daily Snow

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By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 4 years ago November 25, 2019

The Cold Is Here, Next Comes the Snow...

Summary

- Monday we have sun and clouds with breezy conditions. Highs in the 30s. Mountain top winds gusting up to 40 mph. - The next storm moves in by Tuesday afternoon with heavy snow Tuesday night. Moderate snow showers possible Wednesday with scattered light showers possible through Thursday night. Snow levels are very low starting around 4,000 feet and falling below 2,000 feet at times. We could see 1.5-3 feet of snow on the mountains, and 10-20+ inches at lake level. Highs in the 20s Wed-Fri with overnight lows in the teens. Strong winds Tuesday should come down some Wednesday and lighter for Thursday. - We should start to clear out Friday with drier weather into Saturday. The next storm is off the West Coast by Saturday. We could see some snow push in Saturday night into Sunday if the storm moves close enough to the coast. - The storm may stall off the coast with drier weather to start the week of the 2nd, but the storm could push in by the middle of the week with more rain and snow. There could be another storm right behind that one for later next week.

Short Term Forecast

We were expecting mainly a dry cold front to move through early this morning. The cold front moved through but we did see a thin band of snow move through western NV and brush the northeast corner of the Tahoe Basin. I noticed when I hear a few flakes hitting the office window this morning.

radar

We have cleared out now and we should have a mostly sunny day but much colder with highs only in the 30s. Temperatures have continued to fall with the arrival of the colder air.

temp fall

We saw some upper mountain wind gusts to 60+ mph this morning with the cold front. Those will come down today with gusts mainly in the 20-30 mph range.

The Storm:

Not much change to the forecast this morning. We have a cold storm moving in Tuesday with snow showers possibly lingering through Thursday. Let's break it down again this morning. 

Tuesday - Tuesday Night:

We will see increasing clouds and winds for during the day. Winds are expected to be gusting from the southwest up to 50+ mph over the ridges by afternoon.

wind

The storm moves in by afternoon. We could see some light snow west of the lake along the crest by midday with heavier snow expected to push in by 4 pm.

gfs

Travel is not advised through the Sierra past midday as conditions will deteriorate quickly with the light density snow and strong winds blowing it around. We should see the heaviest snowfall Tuesday night with and behind the passage of the front. By Wednesday morning we could have 1-2 feet of fresh snow on the mountains, and 8-15 inches at lake level.

Wednesday - Wednesday Night:

The winds start to come down on Wednesday but still gusting from SW at 50+ mph in the morning and dropping to 20+ mph in the afternoon. The continued SW winds and cold air blowing across the relatively warm lake water could produce a band of lake effect snow NE of the lake aimed in the direction of Mt. Rose and Diamond Peak. Highs only in the 20s.

Low pressure sitting near the coast by San Francisco and slowly moving south Wednesday will continue snow showers. We could see light-moderate snow showers over the area, especially west of the lake along the Sierra crest. The snow showers should become lighter and more scattered going into Wednesday night. By Thursday morning we could see an additional 2-4 inches at lake level, and 4-9 inches on the mountains.

Thursday - Thursday Night:

Thursday into Thursday night low pressure moves inland. The snow showers should become much more scattered with some areas seeing snow showers while others could see drier conditions throughout the day. Lake effect snow chances continue into Thursday morning before the winds become light and variable during the day. Thursday night scattered snow shower chances continue.

It remains very cold with highs only the 20s and overnight lows in the teens and single digits. The snow levels Wednesday through Thursday night could fluctuate between 1,000-2,500 feet, maybe down to 500' at night. That will make for very light and powdery snow. Even with very little precipitation forecast, the fluff factor could bring up dusting up to a couple of inches of snow wherever snow showers do fall Thursday.

Storm Totals:

By Friday morning we should be clearing out and drying out through the day. It stays cold into Friday with highs in the 20s. Lows at night could dip in the single digits and even below zero in the lower valleys Friday night.

The latest forecast model runs are similar to yesterday morning. There have been slight fluctuations over the past 24 hours but not much. The NAM, GFS, GFS ensemble mean model, & Canadian ensemble mean all have over 2 inches of total precipitation near the crest, with the rest of the models in the 1.6-1.7 inch range. Lesser amounts east across the Tahoe Basin. That has pushed the 100 model average up from 1.6 inches yesterday to 1.9 inches today.

Here is the latest WPC blended model showing up to 1.6 inches.

wpc

The GFS forecast model is slightly drier this morning but still showing up to 2 inches near the crest. The European model is slightly wetter. I used the GFS/European model average for the snowfall forecast. Their average is 1.9 inches near the crest in line with the 100 model average. Snow ratios are in the 15:1 range Tue-Wed on the mountains and up to 20:1 on the upper mountains. Even higher with the snow showers Wed Night - Thu.

Here is the updated snowfall forecast by zone and elevation. Pretty much the same as yesterday.

snowfall

The totals for Mt. Rose don't include the potential for lake effect snow that could drop a little or a lot of additional snowfall. 

For resorts near/on the crest like Sugar Bowl & Kirkwood the National Weather Service has up to 45-52 inches in total by Friday respectively on the upper mountains. That is possible as an outside chance pulling off the wettest model runs. They have a duty to forecast the highest amounts possible for storms just in case for safety reasons. I take a total model average to shoot at a smaller window in the middle for each ski resort eliminating the lowest and highest potentials.

The Upcoming Weekend:

Things get tricky with the forecast going into the weekend the next storm drops south in the eastern Pacific and is off the West Coast by Saturday. This looks to be a large area of low pressure that could spin off the coast for several days. It could also pull in quite a bit of moisture. The question is how close to the coast will it sit and will it push that moisture into CA Saturday night into Sunday?

The forecast models have been back and forth on that with some keeping it off the coast and keeping us dry through the weekend. While others like the latest European and GFS model runs push in more snow by Saturday night into Sunday.

gfs this weekend

This system could also have a narrow AR (atmospheric river) associated with it that it tries to point at CA.

ar

So whether or not it sits close enough to the coast this weekend could make for a dramatic difference in the forecast. The European model runs have been very consistent in pushing in some heavier precipitation. The GFS and Canadian model runs have been back and forth. We will be watching this closely all week. This system would be warmer, but with the very cold air in place ahead of it snow levels may stay near to below 7k.

Extended Forecast

Whether or not the storm off the coast pushes inland this weekend, it should push in eventually next week. Long-range models show another storm dropping down from the northwest and pushing it inland by midweek, and then that storm could move in on its heels. It could make for an interesting week next week. The long-range model runs show well above average precipitation chances for CA over the next 10 days.

next weeks precip

Fantasy Range:

Forecasts beyond a week become very inaccurate on the models, especially beyond 10 days. There is good agreement though on the long-range ensemble runs that the ridge in the northeast Pacific could be replaced by a trough the 2nd week of December.

trough

That would not be a bad setup for continued storm activity into the West Coast. I'll let you know as soon as I see a pattern that will bring a prolonged dry pattern like the one we just got out of. For now, let's enjoy the incoming storms and hope the active pattern continues through December.

Stay tuned...BA

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About Our Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto

Forecaster

Bryan Allegretto has been writing insightful posts about snow storms for over the last 15 years and is known as Tahoe's go-to snow forecaster. BA grew up in south Jersey, surfing, snowboarding, and chasing down the storms creating the epic conditions for both.

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