Tahoe Daily Snow
By Bryan Allegretto, Forecaster Posted 4 years ago December 12, 2019
Blustery Thursday, Colder & Snowier Friday - Saturday...
Summary
- For Thursday into Friday morning, we have strong winds with mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Highs in the 40s at lake level and 30s on the upper mountains. Winds gusting to 65+ mph on the mountain tops. Snow level around 8500 ft. Not expecting more than a coating to an inch of snow for the highest peaks. - Friday afternoon into Friday night we could see a surge of heavier precipitation. Snow levels dropping to around 6500-7000 ft. during the afternoon and holding there through Friday evening. Then dropping to lake level by Saturday morning. By Saturday morning we could see a dusting up to an inch or two for lake level, and 4-11 inches above 7000 ft. on the mountains. Winds on Friday gusting to 50+ mph on the mountains, and highs in the 30s. - Saturday we could see scattered snow showers through the day with snow levels just below lake level. Then a final system Saturday night brings more snow and colder air. Snow levels dropping below 4000 ft. Snow showers could linger into Sunday morning before we clear through the day. Highs in the 30s with winds dropping to 35+ mph over the ridges. We could see a final 1-3 inches at lake level, and 3-8 inches on the mountains. - Sunday afternoon through Tuesday we should see drier weather with highs in the 30s. - The next storm looks like it splits next week with a low spinning up off the West Coast. The forecast models are at odds on whether that system moves inland over Northern CA by Wednesday, or slows and moves inland over Southern CA by Friday. We will be watching the track all week.
Short Term Forecast
Storm Update:
Wednesday afternoon and overnight we saw the storm perform pretty much as we expected. Snow levels started low around 7000 ft. as the precipitation banked up against the west side of the Sierra Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There was little if any spillover to the east side of the lake with most of the forcing to the north. The warmer air continued to work in through the evening with snow levels rising above 8000 ft. Temperatures continued to rise overnight to above freezing at 8000 ft.
We saw a few hours of steady snow up along the crest through the evening. Enough to bring 1-2 inches of snow the upper mountains of the ski areas along the crest. We were expecting a coating up to 2 inches by this morning on the west side of the lake above 7k. Here are this morning's snowfall reports.
Thursday - Thursday Night:
It's hard to say where the snow levels are exactly this morning without many cameras above 8000 ft. The temperature sensors would suggest they are up around 8500', but it doesn't matter much as we are only expecting a few scattered showers at best through Thursday night. The snow level are forecast to sit around 8500 ft. through Thursday evening and then fall closer to 7500 ft. by Friday morning.
The latest model runs only show up to a tenth of an inch of total precipitation. So even at 9000 ft. we are only expecting up to a dusting to an inch of snow by Friday morning. You can see that on the radar this morning there is little if any precipitation south of the CA/OR border.
The bigger news for Thursday will be the strong winds with gusts to 65+ mph through the day on the mountain tops. The sensors are showing gusts to 70+ mph this morning at the top of Squaw. That should close some upper mountain lifts today at the ski resorts.
Friday - Friday Night:
Friday is windy as well with ridgetop gusts to 50+ mph through the day. We have another wave bringing some heavier precipitation Friday afternoon into Friday night.
There will be some colder air working in slowly as well. Snow levels around 7500' in the morning could drop to around 6500' by Friday evening. Then Friday night they could drop to lake level by midnight.
The latest model runs show over an inch of additional precipitation possible by Saturday morning along the crest, with better spillover to the east side of the lake this time. By Saturday morning we could see a coating of snow up to a couple of inches at lake level, and 4-11 inches on the mountains above 7000 ft.
Saturday - Sunday Morning:
The winds come down a little more for Saturday, with ridgetop winds gusting to 35+ mph. That should mean a lot less chance of any lifts being affected. Highs only the 30s with the colder air working in behind the cold front from Friday night. We should see lighter and more scattered snow showers during the day Saturday with light accumulations and snow levels dropping to 5000 ft. by evening.
Saturday night a final wave moves through bringing the chance for a final round of light-moderate snow.
The snow levels continue to fall below 4000 ft. Lingering light snow showers Sunday morning should end and we should start to clear through Sunday afternoon.
The forecast models are still at odds with how wet this final system will be. Some showing only a few tenths of an inch of precipitation near the crest, and others like the GFS showing up to 3/4 of an inch. Taking the average we could see a final coating up to 3 inches at lake level, and 3-8 inches on the mountains.
Total Precipitation:
Total precipitation amounts from Thursday through Sunday morning are ranging from 1.1 to 2.2 inches near the crest on the latest model runs.
The GFS is still the wettest model. That is mainly from steadier snow showers between waves on Saturday and a wetter scenario for Saturday night. The 100 model average is 1.5 inches. The GFS/Euro model average is 1.9 inches thanks to the wetter GFS.
Total Snowfall:
Instead of using the GFS/Euro model average, which would bring up to 23 inches of snow along the crest, I pushed the forecast back towards the deterministic model average of 1.6 inches. Using that and the forecast snow levels and temperatures as of this morning, here is the updated snowfall forecast for Thursday through Sunday morning (really just Friday afternoon - Sunday morning).
Sunday - Tuesday:
We dry out Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Brief ridging brings some sun and quiet weather Monday and Tuesday, but it stays cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens.
Extended Forecast
Midweek Storm:
The next storm approaching the West Coast looks like it will split, with a cut-off low possibly sitting off the coast by Tuesday night. The question is where does it go from there?
The GFS model runs as well as the European control run show the system pushing into CA Wednesday into Thursday with a decent amount of precipitation for Tahoe. The European and Canadian models show the low sitting off the coast Wednesday and moving into Southern CA Thursday - Friday and missing us mostly.
The difference between the two scenarios would be big for us. So we will continue to watch the trend over the next several days.
Long-Range:
The long-range ensembles do show a trough near the West Coast by the middle to end of next week. The trend though is to have it just off the coast with a stronger ridge over the Rockies. We are in-between the two.
That is likely what has the models showing a splitting and slowing of the midweek system, and then a slowing and tilting of the nex system for the end of next week. They are trying to push into the West Coast and encountering the ridge over the West. We should get some precipitation from both systems next week, but the forecast could be more tricky than with more progressive systems.
Fantasy Range:
The trough is forecast to eventually push farther east over the West Coast in the days leading up to Christmas and into the last week of December.
That would make it easier for the storms moving across the Pacific to push into CA. Other than the European control model, we aren't seeing a lot of storms showing up on the long-range models yet. But out more than a week we usually only look at the pattern, and the pattern forecast would be good for bringing additional storms into CA from the 20th - 25th.
We looked at the CFSv2 climate model yesterday which was showing above-average precipitation the week leading up to Christmas. It still shows that this morning. Then a drier pattern to end the month, and a wetter pattern the first week of January. Of course, this is all in the "fantasy range" section of the forecast as the forecast models struggle to have any accuracy beyond 10 days historically.
Stay tuned...BA
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