We saw a weak system move through Tuesday night and fall apart. Not much of a gap between storms for Wednesday as the next storms could begin by later Wednesday afternoon and could linger into Sunday morning before we finally clear out.

We can see the clouds streaming into the West Coast this morning on Satellite as the next storm approaches.

Tuesday Night Recap:

The weak system that moved through overnight fell apart as expected. The forecast was for a dusting on the east side of the lake up to a couple inches west fo the lake along the crest. The ski areas NW of the lake are reporting a fresh 1-2 inches of snow this morning, with the rest of the mountains reporting trace amounts.

Bear Valley is the only anomaly reporting 3 inches overnight which is strange with the rest of the ski areas around them reporting 0".

4-Day Storm Inbound:

Another storm moving in that will bring rain, snow, and fluctuating snow levels. My favorite kind of storm (not). There are several moving pieces over the next 4 days that will affect the amount of snow we could see on the mountains and at different elevations. The overall changes this morning are slightly wetter and slightly colder. So let's dive in...

Wednesday - Wednesday Night:

The jet stream is already taking aim at the Pacific NW this morning and will push in through the day, with Northern CA on the south side. That is will bring us warmer air and light precipitation as early as this afternoon.

The jet stream is fairly strong and even though it is not directly overhead we will see increasing winds Wednesday into Thursday. We already have some ridgetop gusts this morning to 50+mph. That will continue today and increase to 80+ mph going into Thursday. So expect some upper mountain lift closures, if not later today then definitely Thursday.

The latest model runs show light precipitation pushing in by later today along the crest and then into the Tahoe Basin tonight. Snow levels could start around 7000 ft. at the start but rise quickly overnight to 8000-8500 ft. I only have an inch or two of wet snow forecast above 8000 ft. by Thursday morning, but that will depend on the snow levels and where ski resorts measure if we will have any snowfall reports by Thursday morning. Most ski resorts measure within a few hundred feet on either side of 8000', with Northstar and Mt. Rose a little higher near 8,500'.

Thursday - Thursday Night:

As mentioned above, expecting strong winds for Thursday with ridge gusts to 80+ mph likely closing upper mountain lifts at exposed ski areas. The showers still look pretty light with the best chance for steady precip west of the lake near the crest. The jet stream starts to sag south with some slightly colder air working in. Snow levels in the 8000-8500 ft. range could lower to 6500-7000 ft. overnight Thursday night.

By Friday morning we could see a coating to 2 inches above 7000 ft., and 2-4 inches of new snow above 8000 ft.

Friday - Friday Night:

We may see the winds come down some on Friday with gusts of 50+ mph. It may be on the borderline of whether or not some upper mountain lifts are closed or not. The initial moisture stream fades Friday with a 2nd push of precipitation forecast to move in sometime between Friday afternoon and Friday night. The GFS model is pretty dry during the day Friday with the European model pushing in the next round of precipitation by afternoon. The moisture streaming in off the Pacific is aimed at Tahoe by Friday evening.

This 2nd round of precipitation is trending a bit heavier this morning. We could see a shot of steady rain and snow with snow levels hovering in the 6500-7000 ft. range Friday and dropping to around 5500-6000 ft. by early Saturday morning as a cold front moves through. That means snow levels could reach lake level at some point in the middle of the night Friday night. The European model is weaker with this wave with less than a half-inch of additional precipitation near the crest, while the GFS has close to an inch.

Taking the model averages, we could see a coating up to an inch or two at lake level depending on the timing of the snow level drop. Above 7000 ft. on the mountains we could see an additional 3-8 inches of snow by Saturday morning.

Saturday - Sunday Morning:

We could see another break or lighter more scattered showers going through the day on Saturday as the 2nd push of moisture shifts out of the area. Colder air continues to work in behind the cold front. It's colder on Saturday with highs only in the 30s at lake level and below freezing on the upper mountains. Snow levels could drop below 5000 ft. by Saturday evening. Only expecting light accumulations if any Saturday during the day.

Then Saturday night a final weak and colder system drops in from the NW. 

Some of the forecast models like the GFS have trended a bit wetter this morning with this system. Others like the European model are still drier with light precipitation amounts. The snow showers could linger into Sunday morning before we clear out by Sunday afternoon, with another cold day for Sunday.

Taking the model average, additional snowfall through Sunday morning could be around 1-3 inches at lake level and 2-5 inches on the mountains above 7000 ft.

Total Precipitation:

All of the forecast models are slightly wetter by a few tenths this morning for total precipitation Wednesday night through Sunday morning. That is from several factors including: earlier start time Wednesday, wetter with 2nd round of moisture Friday night, and slightly wetter with final wave Saturday night. The total model average for the storm has increased to a high end of 1.8 inches west of the lake near the crest, with good spillover to the east side.

Part of the increase is the GFS trying to be the hero again with up to 2.7 inches, while the rest of the models range from 1.5 to 1.9 inches.

Total Snowfall:

The updated snowfall forecast takes into account the increased precipitation averages as well as slightly colder air throughout the storm and slightly faster snow level drops on the latest model runs. I discounted the GFS and went with the 100 model average for the average precipitation amounts in the snowfall calculations. Here is the updated forecast by Sunday morning.

There are so many moving parts with this storm with the sagging jet stream, the 2nd surge of moisture, and a final weak system Saturday night. The forecast models are not in agreement on timing, precip amounts, and snow levels with each. I'm doing my best to average together all of the runs and come up with a decent snowfall forecast for the next 4 days. One of the more complicated forecasts in a while.

Sunday - Tuesday:

It looks like we will clear out by Sunday afternoon with drier weather into Tuesday. It should be cold with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens. Lighter winds expected through most of the period with Tuesday being the wild card as we track down the next approaching storm.

By the middle of next week, the long-range models continue to show a large and deep trough over the eastern Pacific and the West Coast.

That should keep the storm door open from the middle of next week through the end of the week. The trend this morning on the deterministic model runs is for the next storm to cut-off from the jet stream and drop down off the West Coast next week. That would slow the arrival and we may need the next upstream system to help push it into the West Coast. The models vary from an earlier arrival next Wednesday to a delay until next Friday. So we will be tracking that over the next week.

Fantasy Range:

The trough is forecast to stay over the West Coast until about Christmas.

That would keep the storm door open. The long-range models suggest more storms from the 20th-25th. The CFSv2 is forecasting above-average precipitation for CA during that period.

Then the uber long-range of the models suggest we could see a drier pattern during the Christmas to New Years week. If this forecast holds it would be a dream for the ski areas. Snow the week leading up to the holiday period with above-average snowpack and then nice weather for the holidays? That would bring massive crowds for the holidays. We'll see...

Stay tuned...BA

P.S. I mentioned this earlier in the season, but a reminder that this season I no longer hand key each ski resorts 12-hour forecasts for each day to match my forecast. We have built and continue to fine-tune formulas for the computer to calculate snowfall. I'm forecasting against the computer. You may notice higher snowfall forecasts at times for Sugar Bowl, Sierra & Kirkwood within 3 days of a storm. Within 3 days we add the NWS point forecasts into our computer model average formulas. NWS Sac covers those ski areas with the rest falling into the NWS Reno zone. NWS Sac tends to forecast higher snowfall amounts which pushes the forecast higher at those ski areas sometimes as compared to the other ski areas along the crest.

P.S.S. Did you know that you could receive the Tahoe Daily Snow via email as soon as the latest report is published? Upgrade to All-Access and subscribe to our Daily Snow Forecast Alerts (Settings > Snow Alerts).

We have special edition OpenSnow apparel that is available to buy only for a limited time!

The pop-up shop includes a “Dreaming of Powder” T-Shirt (cover photo), an OpenSnow-branded Beanie, Hoodies, and Athletic Apparel.

Order by December 18th for delivery in January 2020.

Link to Order → opsw.co/OSApparel