The trend for the weekend system is a slight shift to the north. That means we will likely only see clouds, gusty winds, slightly cooler temperatures, and an outside chance of a few raindrops NW of the Tahoe basin.
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Short Term Forecast
The trend over the last 2 days has continued to be for the weekend system to trend a bit farther to the north of CA. With the trough not digging as deep, that means we will not see temperatures cool as much and there is a limited chance of seeing any precipitation as far south as the Tahoe basin.
Like I mentioned in the last few posts I didn't like the current setup of the teleconnections for anything significant for CA with the upcoming pattern change. In Tuesday's post, it looked like we could get brushed by the southern edge of the system moving through Saturday, and could see a dusting of snow on the peaks.
It was nice to dust off and play around with the snowfall calculator this week. But it has been turned off again for now with the most recent model runs keep most of the precipitation just to our north.
We should see an increase in cloudiness by Saturday afternoon and an increase in southwest winds. Ridgetop winds could gust to 50+ mph. Temperatures will cool with highs only in the 50s for lake level and 40s for the upper mountains. The best chance for showers NW of the lake near the crest look to be Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Some forecast models like the NAM keep us completely dry with heavy precipitation up in Washington and Oregon.
The WPC's blended model includes forecast models that are the farthest south. But still bring only a few hundredths of an inch of total precip through Saturday night at most to the mountains NW of the lake.
The European ensemble mean model is similar to the other models.
It looks like we can now share the European model maps, so I'll be using them this winter in posts which is exciting!
Snow levels on the latest model runs stay above 11,000 ft. with the colder air staying farther north. So any precipitation would just be rain Saturday night.
Unfortunately, this is more of a windy event with mostly dry conditions continuing for most of CA, which will only continue the high fire risks...
High pressure builds back in starting Sunday and continuing through next week.
That will warm us back into the 60s Sunday and likely back into the 70s next week.
As of right now, the long-range models only build the ridge farther north in the long-range with the dry weather pattern continuing. The best chance for keeping skies clearer from smoke will be if we see a northeast flow develop later next week.
I will post again Saturday morning if there are any changes for the Saturday system. If not, I will resume my weekly updates again at the beginning of next week. Pray for rain/snow to show up sooner than later!
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