Not too much has changed with the forecast for the weak system moving through in 2 parts Thursday night into Saturday morning. We do have a few small changes with timing, winds, snow levels, & snowfall amounts.

We have increasing clouds Thursday with highs in the 40s at lake level after a cold start to the morning, and 30s on the upper mountains.

Northeast winds early Thursday will be turning west and then southwest by evening. Ridgetop gusts are lighter through the morning 30-40+ mph, but then increasing quickly by evening, possibly gusting 70-80+ mph by dark.

Thursday Night - Saturday Morning System:

You can see the clouds streaming into northwest CA on the satellite above. A decent plume of moisture will stream into northern CA today (Thursday) into tonight, but will weaken and struggle to reach the Tahoe region with the flat ridge to the south. We could see a few scattered showers north of the lake from late Thursday afternoon through the evening, but most areas should stay pretty dry.

The latest model runs show light showers pushing in during the early morning hours after midnight into Friday. Very light and scattered showers with the best chance to see steady showers being west of the lake and along the crest. Snow levels start out below lake level Thursday night with a few flakes possible, but then rising up to 6500-7500 ft. Friday, and maybe tapping 8k south of the lake.

Ridgetop winds on Friday will be gusting 70-80+ mph with rain showers possible below 7500 ft. So a windy and possibly wet day on the mountains. We could see a few peeks of sun over the lake by afternoon before the next wave moves in Friday night. We could see a coating up to an inch of snow above 8000 ft. along the crest.

Friday night the 2nd part of this system brings through a cold front and a round of steadier light precipitation. Snow levels should fall below lake level by late evening and to 4000 ft. by Saturday morning, so we should see mostly all snow with this wave. We could see snow showers into Saturday morning and then ending by late morning and clearing through the afternoon.

All of the models have been trending back slightly wetter with the 2nd wave Friday night. This is when most of the precipitation falls with this storm into Saturday morning. The range this morning is 0.3 - 0.7 inches along the crest and up to 0.3 inches on the east side of the lake. Interestingly, the ICON model, which was the first to suggest a drier system a few days ago, is now the wettest model this morning.

The total model average is up slightly to 0.47 inches northwest of the lake along the crest. Amounts fade to the south and taper off completely south of Mammoth. The GFS model is the closest to the average of the models this morning. Here is the total precipitation forecast through Saturday morning.

The best chance to see the high end of the forecast will be northwest of the lake near the crest. With the storm starting tonight, even though it will be a non-event through Friday, I have to put out the "final" forecast this morning for snowfall. But we can take another look Friday morning at the snowfall potential for Friday night. Here is the final forecast through Saturday morning, most of this falling later Friday night into Saturday morning.

We clear out through Saturday afternoon with some sun. It's cold for Saturday with highs in the 30s at lake level and 20 on the upper mountains. Ridgetop winds dropping Saturday with gusts of only 20-30+ mph. 

Sunday - Tuesday:

A much more tranquil weather pattern for Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure builds over CA.

The weather should be perfect for the NHL games taking place on the golf course in South Lake Tahoe this weekend. We should see mostly sunny skies through the 3-day period with light winds. Highs into the 40s at lake level Sunday, and then 50s Monday into Tuesday, with 40s for the upper mountains.

By Wednesday the pattern begins to shift with the ridge shifting west away from the coast, and a cold trough digging south into the West through the end of the month, and into the first few days of March.

The long-range models show cold/weak systems dropping down from the north by the end of next week into the last weekend of February. Here is a look at the increased precipitation forecast on the GFS model over the next 10 days. Compare to the 3-day forecast from the same model above.

The systems look weak but if the forecast holds, we could see a few systems bring light snow through the end of the month. Temperatures start to cool starting Wednesday with highs dropping back into the 40s at lake level, and then maybe even colder by the end of the week.

Fantasy Range:

The long-range models suggest that high pressure could build back in near the West Coast during the 1st week of March. We will have to see what happens from there. Looking at the teleconnection patterns I have some hope that the pattern opens back up the 2nd week of March, but we are out in the "fantasy range". 

For now, there are no big storms on the horizon for the next 2 weeks. Let's hope that changes...

Stay tuned...BA

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A new episode of The Flakes Podcast is out! This week we talk to Powder Chaser Steve about top chases this season & being stuck in Interlodge at Alta/Snowbird along with several members of the OpenSnow team. Plus we go through the 5-day snowfall reports & forecasts for each ski state!

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