It's a quiet morning as we await the arrival of the big storm. We saw some light snow move through during the early morning hours Saturday with a dusting of snow on the mountains. We now have a break before precipitation returns later Saturday. We can see the storm beginning to wind up off the coast with the moisture streaming underneath and headed towards the West Coast.

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Okay, back to the forecast...

Saturday:

Light rain & snow showers are expected to move back in by Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Highs in the 40s at lake level and 30s for the upper mountains. Winds increasing from the southwest with ridgetop gusts to 60+ mph by afternoon. 

Only light amounts of total precipitation expected through Saturday evening. Snow levels hovering around 7000-8000 ft. Maybe another dusting for the higher elevations.

Heavy Rain:

The atmospheric river associated with this storm will stream copious amounts of moisture into CA starting later Saturday night after midnight through Sunday night. What a beautiful map!

Snow levels will start out around 8000-8500 ft, but then they will be rising through the day on Sunday. We could see snow levels sit up around 10,000-11,000 ft. for several hours Sunday. So mostly a rain event with heavy rain expected through Sunday afternoon. We could see 2-3+ inches of rain by Sunday afternoon!

Winds will be strong with southwest gusts to 50+ mph at lake level and 140+ mph over the mountain tops! Not a day you will want to be outdoors. Driving won't be easy either with the heavy rain and wind with water on the roads.

The latest model runs are slower to lower snow levels Sunday night. We may see a slow drop with snow levels around 9500 - 10,500 ft. Sunday evening, then down to 8500-9000 ft. by 1 AM, and down to 6500-7000 ft. by 4 AM Monday morning. So mostly rain below 8000 ft. and all rain below 7000 ft. for Sunday night. We could see an additional 2-3+ inches of rain during this period!

Snow at The End:

The tricky part about the snowfall below 9000 ft. will be how fast the snow levels fall vs how fast the AR shifts south ending the heavy precipitation. By Monday morning the models show that we are still on the northern edge of the heavy precipitation. 

Snow levels look to fall from 9000 ft. down to 6000 ft. between midnight Sunday night and 7-8 AM Monday. The heavy precipitation may end by late morning Monday. That means we would see about 8-10 hours of heavy snow above 8000 ft, 6-8 hours above 7000 ft, and 3-6 hours between 6000-7000 ft. (lake level is around 6200' & downtown Truckee around 5900'). This is the period when we will see the snow pile up for these elevations.

Highs in the 30s with gusty winds continuing from the southwest but dropping through the day on Monday.

Precipitation Totals:

The latest model runs show a final half-inch to an inch of precipitation Monday. Storm totals range from 6.5 - 8.2 inches west of the lake along the crest. That's a huge storm for October, and for any 36-48 hour period! Plenty of transport of the moisture to the east side of the lake and into Nevada. Models show 5-7 inches of total precipitation for the east side of the lake. The total model average for the crest is around 7.5 inches.

Snowfall Totals:

The snowfall above 9000 ft. will be significant with feet of wet snow. Only Kirkwood, Heavenly, & Mt. Rose have any meaningful amount of terrain above 9000 ft. Most of the ski areas have terrain between 6200 - 9000 ft. where we will see rain until snow levels fall after midnight Sunday night into Monday morning. How fast the snow levels end up falling will make a big difference in snowfall totals with the heavy precipitation rates.

Based on the latest model runs, here is the updated and the final forecast for snowfall before the storm arrives.

1.5 - 3 feet possible above 8000 ft. for the upper mountains after midnight Sunday night through Monday. 1-2 feet possible above 7000 ft, and a few up to several inches possible for lake level Monday morning if we see snow before the steady precipitation moves out by late morning. Then scattered snow for Monday afternoon with little additional accumulations.

This is not the 4-5 feet of snow I hear rumors going around about for Donner Summit and other areas. You will see mostly rain at your house with this storm until Monday morning. A foot+ possible over the passes. I'll be writing the first I-80 Daily Snow travel forecast of the season this morning.

Tuesday:

The latest model runs show most of the showers now staying to our north Monday night and Tuesday as the center of the low moves inland to our north. We may see clouds and sun with highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees at lake level. Ridgetop winds could pick back up a bit again Tuesday with southwest gusts of 60-70+ mph.

High pressure is still forecast to build in over the region behind the storm. That will bring us a drier pattern by Wednesday through the end of the week. Highs warming into the 40s at lake level Wednesday, and 50s for Thursday into Friday. 

Lighter winds are expected as well. It should be a nice few days.

Next Weekend:

The long-range models continue to show a weaker trough digging south off the West Coast by next weekend, but the latest runs show it staying off the coast.

Some of the forecast models show a weak system possibly moving through with light rain & snow showers Friday night into next Saturday. But I'm not very optimistic right now the way the pattern is trending. It may be a mostly dry weekend.

Fantasy Range:

Beyond 10 days, the long-range models continue to suggest a ridge building over the West through the first week of November.

That may continue a drier pattern through the extended period after we get through the big storm this weekend. We will focus on the long-range and when we could see storms return once we get past this storm.

Stay tuned...BA