High pressure over the region will continue the sunny, dry, and mild weather through Sunday. Also, light winds and overnight inversions are expected to continue. Daytime highs into the 50s.

The coldest temperatures with the inversions are stuck down in the valleys. Overnight lows above freezing on the upper mountains are preventing snowmaking. This morning it looks like Palisades Tahoe is making some snow at the very bottom below 7000' where temperatures are below freezing.

We will need a shift in the pattern with better mixing and colder overnight lows to get snowmaking going for the higher elevations. Due to the poor snowmaking conditions, the ski areas have been pushing back their opening dates.

Over the past 24 hours, the long-range models have started to suggest the ridge could retrograde slightly west just off the West Coast by next Tuesday. That could allow a trough and associated cold front to move down from the north into the West.

The U.S. GFS ensemble mean model is the farthest west with the trough, the European and Canadian ensemble mean runs keep the ridge closer to the coast. It looks like colder air and showers will move down through the Rockies by next Tuesday, but CA is on the western edge. Right now the deterministic models are mostly all showing light showers for the Sierra.

We are starting next week mild with highs still in the 50s Monday, but the winds may increase ahead of the trough passage. Then cooler by Tuesday with a chance of showers. It's too early to start looking at details, but snow levels likely start high and may only bottom out around 7000 ft. We will have to keep tracking this system to see how much if any moisture we will get.

Here is a look at the GFS forecast for precip through next Tuesday.

The good news is that we should see some colder nights for at least somewhat better snowmaking once this system clears next week. It looks like high pressure builds back in with dry weather again next Wednesday - Thursday, the 8th - 9th.

Fantasy Range:

Any chance for significant snowfall is still in the fantasy range, but about to break into the long-range at day 10. The long-range models continue to suggest a deeper trough could dig into the West Coast by the 10th through the end of the 2nd week of December.

The GFS ensembles are the deepest with the trough. The European and Canadian models aren't as deep but have the trough. This pattern would open the door to a colder and wetter storm potentially by the 10th, and then another storm possibly by the end of the 2nd week of December. The long-range ensemble mean models continue to show increased precipitation chances/amounts from the 10th-15th.

If you have been reading along the last couple of weeks, you know I've suggested a dry 1st week of December, wetter 2nd week, possibly drier 3rd week, and then possibly wetter Christmas - New Year's. Of course, that has just been a guess based on the models and teleconnection forecasts.

The flip to a negative PNA pattern supports a wetter pattern during the 2nd week of December, but we'll have to see how far south the storms dig into CA.

The long-range models suggest the -PNA pattern continues through mid-month.

The reason I've had some pause beyond mid-month for a continued West Coast trough is the active phase of the MJO moving into the Western Pacific over the next 2 weeks. The downstream pattern tends to bring eastern Pacific/West Coast ridging.

There are some signs in the long-range forecast of the EPO (eastern Pacific oscillation) pattern to shift negative beyond mid-month which could line up with the MJO forecast. That is a Gulf of Alaska/eastern Pacific ridge pattern...

...and it can help to drive cold air into the central & eastern U.S. CA is in between. We can see colder/drier systems from the north but the wet storms off the Pacific can be blocked, especially in La Nina without a strong southern branch of the jet stream.

We will have to see what happens, but that is why I have been suggesting it's possible after a couple of storms we could go back into a drier pattern again before Christmas. If the active phase of the MJO continues eastward, we could see more favorable phases for West Coast troughing and storms late in the month.

This is not a lock obviously. Just some musings for the fantasy range. I hope I'm wrong or the forecast changes and the -PNA pattern continues, and we see troughing stick around the West Coast with storms continuing into the 2nd half of December. Always fun to try and speculate and see what happens though.

Stay tuned...BA

A new episode of The Flakes Podcast is out!

Mike & BA go through the 5-day snowfall reports & 5-day forecasts for each ski region, and talk about when the pattern could shift for the West. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Apple, Google, Amazon, Spotify, etc...