We have some changes in the long-range trends this morning. We'll get to that in a minute. First, let's look at the details of the dry pattern that continues through Sunday.

Tuesday - Sunday:

No changes to the forecast through Sunday. High pressure will dominate with a dry pattern continuing. Mostly sunny skies are expected through the period.

A cold front is moving through Tuesday with some colder air and highs only into the 30s. Gusty northeast winds could gust up to 50+ mph over exposed ridgetops.

Wednesday we warm back into the 40s and we should stay there through Sunday. The winds are lighter Wednesday and Friday through the weekend. Thursday another cold front moving through to our east could bring slightly cooler temps and breezy northeast winds.

Monday - Tuesday System:

So we finally have a weak system into the 7-day forecast window. The long-range models have been touting a pattern shift near the end of the month for weeks. The forecast is still for a trough to dig south into the West on Monday.

But we are starting to see a negative trend on the Canadian and European models this morning. They are now starting to show the trough digging south farther east.

We were only expecting a weak system but a shift each with the trough would make the system even weaker, and completely dry if it shifts any farther east. 

We are still outside of the 5-day window so no detailed snowfall forecasts yet. The latest model runs show light precipitation moving in Monday morning and possibly lasting into Tuesday before clearing. But scattered showers as most of the moisture stays to our north. Snow levels could start just above lake level before falling by Monday night.

The GFS model is weak but wetter than the European model with the trough digging south farther west over CA. Still enough for a few to several inches of snow but focused NW of the lake like the weak systems we saw the first week of January.

The Canadian and European models are drier with only enough precipitation for a coating to an inch of snow on the mountains in total.

We will continue to watch the trends for the Monday - Tuesday system, but overall it still looks weak like it has all along. Just maybe even weaker now...

The GFS ensemble mean model continues to show the same pattern for next week that it has for a while now. The trough digs in over the West and sits there for a few days through next Thursday.

But the Canadian and European ensemble mean models are now showing the shift east with the pattern next week that they started this morning with the initial trough Monday.

The GFS model would still allow the 2nd weak system for the 3rd-4th that we have been talking about, but the Canadian & European models would nudge the storm trough northeast and would return the dry pattern right away next Wednesday through the end of the week.

I've been saying all along that I didn't like the pattern forecast and that the storms looked unimpressive. But we were at least hoping for some fresh snow for 3-4 days next week. The trends on the European model are not good for even those weak systems to bring measurable snowfall.

Here is a look at the total precipitation forecast on the GFS ensemble mean model through the first week of February. It still shows up to 1 inch along the crest, which is not a lot for a week of weak storms, but enough for a little fresh snow.

But the trend on the last several model runs is a downward trend for next week.

The European ensemble mean model only shows the very light precip Monday, and that's it through the 1st week of February.

I wish I had better news, but we are still only chasing weak systems next week with the pattern shift, and the trend is going in the wrong direction. We will see some colder air and breezy winds as well.

Fantasy Range:

Not much change in the forecast going into the 2nd week of February. The long-range models continue to show high pressure closer to the West Coast by the 5th through the 2nd week of February, keeping us in a drier pattern.

But there is some divergence between the GFS & European models in the fantasy range as well. The GFS ensemble mean model has the ridge farther off the coast. That could keep the door open to weak systems from the north through the 2nd week of February.

The European ensemble mean model now has the ridge closer to the West Coast which would likely keep us completely dry through the 2nd week of February.

Overall there is agreement that we will see below-average precipitation through the 1st half of February.

Flashbacks of 2011 with a big December leading into a 6-week dry spell. The snow started again in mid-February that year and didn't stop until June. That would be nice but no signs of that happening this year yet. I'll continue to search the long-range and watch the teleconnection signals for any signs of a return of real storms in February.

2002-03 season was an interesting one where we recorded 155" of snow at the Snow Lab in December, then well below average snowfall Jan-Mar. Then a record 124" in April. Let's hope we aren't going to repeat that. Let's pray for snow to return later in February and beyond!

I'll have more comparisons of years with big Decembers and dry Januarys, and what happened next over the next week. January is not a record-low snowfall month. The Snow Lab recorded 9 inches of snow the 1st week of January so we are sitting at #4 on the low snowfall list for Januaries since 1970. We are also still above average for snowfall season to date. More on that next week...

Stay tuned...BA

A New Episode of The Flakes Podcast is out!

This week we sit down with The Digital Horseman from Ski Utah to talk skiing & snow. Then we go through the 5-day snowfall forecasts for each ski region, and discuss the long-range weather outlook.

Available on most podcast platforms...